Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico
19 Sep 2019 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 148 km/h
Maximum storm surge 4.7 m (19 Sep 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 148 km/h 4.7 m 246 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 4.7 m 421 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico311,710
+
United States800 
Mexico310,910 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Sep 2019 00:00 148 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

421 mm

Up to 1.5 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico65,094 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico1,441,106
+
United States180,836 
Mexico1,260,270 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico8,719,394
+
United States2,096,130 
Mexico6,623,264 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 209 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 213 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 381 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 319 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 203 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 19 Sep 2019 00:00 805 1.5 million
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  4.7
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  4.7
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Tecolutla Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 06:00 La Guadalupe Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Monte Gordo Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Buen Pais Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Alvarado Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Conejo Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Las Barrillas Mexico  3.6
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  3.6
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Tampico Alta Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Tamiahua Mexico  2.7
19 Sep 2019 06:00 El Naranjal Mexico  2.7
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Nautla Mexico  2.6
19 Sep 2019 06:00 El Laurel Mexico  2.6
19 Sep 2019 06:00 La Pesca Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 06:00 San Cosme Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Santa Marta Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  1.7
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Los Pericos Mexico  1.7
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  1.5
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  1.3
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Laja Mexico  1.3
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.9
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Port Isabel United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 06:00 South Padre Island United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Boca Chica United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 06:00 La Presita Mexico  0.7
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.5
19 Sep 2019 05:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
19 Sep 2019 05:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.3
19 Sep 2019 05:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.3
19 Sep 2019 03:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 03:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 02:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 02:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 01:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 00:45 Solo Dios Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 03:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 03:45 Orange Grove United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 03:45 Peary Place United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 03:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:15 La Paz Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 03:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 03:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 03:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 03:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 03:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:45 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:45 Arista Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 02:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 05:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 01:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 05:45 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 05:45 Constance Beach United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 05:45 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 05:45 Holly Beach United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 01:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 01:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Cameron United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 02:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Sabine United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 04:00 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 04:00 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 02:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Liliba Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 05:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Oak Grove United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:15 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 04:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1