Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

10 Feb 2020 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (10 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.2 m	26 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar	454,284	+
	Tanzania	18,523
	Mozambique	425,146
	Madagascar	10,615

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	205	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ambato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 15:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 13:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 13:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 13:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 13:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 13:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 15:30	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 13:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 13:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 13:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 15:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 15:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 15:45	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 15:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 15:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 16:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 16:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 16:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 16:15	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 16:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 16:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 16:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 16:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 16:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 16:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 16:15	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:30	La Ferme	Mauritius	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:30	Port Mathurin	Mauritius	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 12:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 18:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 13:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 17:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.