Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
27 Aug 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (29 Aug 01:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 83 km/h 0.2 m 218 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 0.5 m 838 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

86 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico29 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 25 Aug 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 00:00 173 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico7,514 
100-250 mmMexico1,322,765 
50-100 mmMexico2,881,365 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 00:00 175 70 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 25 Aug 2021 12:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 00:00 597 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 664 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 00:00 426 1.3 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2021 01:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
29 Aug 2021 01:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 05:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 22:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 13:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 21:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 21:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 21:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 20:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 04:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 La Playa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 19:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:45 Liliba Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 02:45 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:45 Datilito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 00:30 Chula Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:45 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1