Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
27 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (30 Aug 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 86 km/h 0.5 m 144 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 0.5 m 838 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

86 km/h

Up to 260 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico264,754 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 25 Aug 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 12:00 158 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico9,081 
100-250 mmMexico1,729,644 
50-100 mmMexico3,836,698 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 00:00 175 70 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 25 Aug 2021 12:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 00:00 597 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 664 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 12:00 386 1.7 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Punta Colorada, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Aug 2021 11:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.5
30 Aug 2021 11:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.5
30 Aug 2021 10:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.5
30 Aug 2021 10:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.5
30 Aug 2021 11:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.4
30 Aug 2021 10:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.4
30 Aug 2021 10:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 11:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 10:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 11:30 La Paz Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 11:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 12:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 15:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 11:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 11:45 El Tule Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 12:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 21:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 09:00 La Boca Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 23:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 12:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 11:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 12:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 12:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 22:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 11:30 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 12:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Monteon Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 23:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 09:45 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 11:15 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:30 La Playa Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 11:30 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 11:15 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 11:30 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:45 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:30 San Blas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 15:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 11:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Chola Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Ipala Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Corrales Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 11:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 04:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 11:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Cedros Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:45 El Barril Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Chamela Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 San Diego United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Coronado United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Boal United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:15 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:15 Liliba Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1