Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico
25 Oct 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (25 Oct 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h 0.2 m 215 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.7 m 471 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico23,881 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 24 Oct 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 24 Oct 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 25 Oct 2021 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 25 Oct 2021 06:00 137 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

471 mm

Up to 200 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico204,467 
50-100 mmMexico1,014,143 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 24 Oct 2021 06:00 116 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 24 Oct 2021 12:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 25 Oct 2021 00:00 249 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 25 Oct 2021 06:00 267 200 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2021 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Oct 2021 11:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 11:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 06:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 10:00 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 09:30 Calvario Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 09:30 Coyuquillas Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 06:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 06:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 10:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 10:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 10:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 09:30 Lagunillas Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 09:30 Joluta Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 10:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 06:00 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 11:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 07:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 07:15 Monteon Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 07:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Arista Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Buenavista Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 10:15 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 07:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 07:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 11:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 08:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:15 La Choya Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 08:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Chamela Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 07:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 08:30 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:30 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:30 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 12:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 12:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 12:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 12:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 12:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 07:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 07:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 10:30 Chula Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 10:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 10:45 La Boca Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 06:45 Chola Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:45 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:45 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:45 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:45 La Majada Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 08:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:30 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:15 La Playa Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:15 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:15 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1