Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTELLE-22
in Mexico
19 Jul 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (19 Jul 15:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 94 km/h 0.4 m 99 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 158 km/h 0.7 m 454 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

158 km/h

Up to 7 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico6,681
+
United States5,655 
Mexico1,025 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Jul 2022 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Jul 2022 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 16 Jul 2022 00:00 83 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 4 16 Jul 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 16 Jul 2022 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 16 Jul 2022 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 7 17 Jul 2022 00:00 122 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 8 17 Jul 2022 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 17 Jul 2022 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 17 Jul 2022 18:00 140 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 11 18 Jul 2022 00:00 133 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 12 18 Jul 2022 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 18 Jul 2022 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 18 Jul 2022 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 19 Jul 2022 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 19 Jul 2022 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 19 Jul 2022 12:00 94 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico17,137
+
United States2,778 
Mexico14,359 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico538,744
+
United States409,769 
Mexico128,974 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Jul 2022 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Jul 2022 18:00 109 3 thousand
- - - - Guatemala
Blue 3 16 Jul 2022 00:00 73 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 16 Jul 2022 06:00 117 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 16 Jul 2022 12:00 171 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 16 Jul 2022 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 17 Jul 2022 00:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 17 Jul 2022 06:00 130 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 17 Jul 2022 12:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 17 Jul 2022 18:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 18 Jul 2022 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 18 Jul 2022 06:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 18 Jul 2022 12:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 18 Jul 2022 18:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 19 Jul 2022 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 19 Jul 2022 06:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 19 Jul 2022 12:00 490 20 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Jul 2022 15:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Jul 2022 15:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.4
19 Jul 2022 16:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.3
19 Jul 2022 16:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.3
19 Jul 2022 14:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 14:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 12:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 El Volcancillo Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Gualora Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Las Piletas Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 El Moray Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Estero del Espino Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Campamento Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 El Hato Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Barrancones Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Buena Vista Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 El Tambor Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 14:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 12:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 12:15 Molino Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 12:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Las Pozas Nicaragua  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 El Capulin Nicaragua  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Condega Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Cedeno Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Albania Honduras  0.2
19 Jul 2022 12:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 14:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2022 17:30 El Ajustillo Honduras  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:30 Puerto Grande Honduras  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:30 El Carmen Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Weeks United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Louisa United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Ivanhoe United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Florence United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Cote Blanche Landing United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Freetown United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Gordy United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 South Bend United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Burns United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 El Tanque Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 El Puente Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 La Chacara Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Mangle Alto Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:45 El Mogotillo El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:45 El Cacao El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:45 La Union El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:45 Murucagua Honduras  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:45 Conchaguita El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:45 El Capulin Honduras  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:45 El Zapote Honduras  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Venecia Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Santo Tomas Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Guerrero El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:45 Datilito Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:45 La Paz Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:45 Rosario Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Cangrejera El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Canton Pimiental El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 La Herradura El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 El Zapote El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:15 Empalme Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:45 La Playa Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:15 Isla de Mendez El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:15 El Espiritu Santo El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:15 Corral de Mulas El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:00 Linda Vista Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:00 Puerto el Barquito Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:00 Poneloya Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:00 El Carmen Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:00 Candelaria Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:00 Salinas Grandes Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:00 El Barril Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Mission United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Montecito United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Summerland United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Serena Park United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Franciscan Village United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Carpinteria United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Rincon United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Shepards United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Punta United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 18:00 San Pedro Guatemala  0.1
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Barra de la Gabina Guatemala  0.1
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Las Champas Guatemala  0.1
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Barra de Santiago El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Cypremort Point United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 15:45 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 15:45 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 15:45 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:30 El Tinco Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:30 Salamina Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:30 San Juan Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:30 El Zapote Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 18:00 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
19 Jul 2022 18:00 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
19 Jul 2022 18:00 El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 18:00 La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:15 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:15 Quinones Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 14:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:00 Agua El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:00 Canoguero El Salvador  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:45 Hope Ranch United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:30 Puerto Somoza Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 17:30 San Jose Nicaragua  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:30 Faria United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:30 Dulah United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:30 San Buenaventura United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:30 Ventura United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:30 Hollywood By The Sea United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:30 Channel Islands Beach United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 16:30 Oxnard United States  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:45 Liliba Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 12:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
19 Jul 2022 13:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1