Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IAN-22
in United States, Cuba
29 Sep 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IAN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 5.0 m (02 Oct 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 104 km/h 5.0 m 215 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 162 km/h 5.0 m 555 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 3.9 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States3,878,351 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Sep 2022 12:00 191 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 23 Sep 2022 00:00 205 -
- - - - - United States, Bermuda
GREEN 3 23 Sep 2022 12:00 241 -
- - - - - Bermuda
GREEN 4 24 Sep 2022 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 24 Sep 2022 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Sep 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 25 Sep 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Sep 2022 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 9 26 Sep 2022 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 10 27 Sep 2022 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 11 27 Sep 2022 12:00 119 -
- - - - - United States, Cuba
GREEN 12 28 Sep 2022 00:00 209 Few people
- - - - United States
GREEN 13 28 Sep 2022 12:00 202 200 thousand
- - - United States
GREEN 14 29 Sep 2022 00:00 115 -
- - - - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Colombia8,682,970
+
United States8,117,068 
Mexico100,599 
Honduras16,990 
Guatemala52,312 
El Salvador1,937 
Nicaragua84,432 
Colombia270,335 
Venezuela6,337 
Costa Rica31,535 
Panama1,420 
50-100 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Cuba, Mexico, Jamaica, Virgin Islands, U.S., Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Belize, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Honduras, Guatemala, Martinique, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama35,716,169
+
United States13,715,821 
Bahamas5,200 
Cuba185,026 
Mexico607,251 
Jamaica07 
Virgin Islands, U.S.30,963 
Anguilla13,806 
Saint-Martin8,468 
Belize109,704 
Saint-Barthélemy1,537 
Antigua and Barbuda178 
Saint Eustatius119 
Saint Kitts and Nevis12,040 
Honduras1,821,087 
Guatemala2,974,004 
Martinique3,970 
El Salvador778,093 
Nicaragua4,324,518 
Colombia7,329,610 
Venezuela1,229,060 
Costa Rica2,137,826 
Panama427,868 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Sep 2022 12:00 187 -
- - - - - Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador
Blue 2 23 Sep 2022 00:00 226 -
- - - - - Curaçao, Bonaire
Blue 3 23 Sep 2022 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 4 24 Sep 2022 00:00 96 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 5 24 Sep 2022 12:00 148 -
- - - - - Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 6 25 Sep 2022 00:00 117 -
- - - - - Venezuela, Costa Rica
Blue 7 25 Sep 2022 12:00 160 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Sep 2022 00:00 134 -
- - - - - United States, Cayman Islands, Guatemala, Colombia, Guyana
Blue 9 26 Sep 2022 12:00 127 -
- - - - - Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica
Blue 10 27 Sep 2022 00:00 211 480 thousand
- - - - United States, Cuba, Costa Rica
Blue 11 27 Sep 2022 12:00 202 20 thousand
- - - - United States, Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
Blue 12 28 Sep 2022 00:00 365 Few people
- - - - United States, Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
Blue 13 28 Sep 2022 12:00 445 830 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico, Haiti, Colombia
Blue 14 29 Sep 2022 00:00 516 8.7 million
- - - - United States, Bahamas, Cuba, Mexico, Jamaica, Virgin Islands, U.S., Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Belize, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Honduras, Guatemala, Martinique, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 00:00 UTC