Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IAN-22
in United States, Cuba
29 Sep 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IAN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 112 km/h
Maximum storm surge 5.0 m (02 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 112 km/h 5.0 m 538 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 162 km/h 5.0 m 555 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 360 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States361,714 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Sep 2022 12:00 191 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 23 Sep 2022 00:00 205 -
- - - - - United States, Bermuda
GREEN 3 23 Sep 2022 12:00 241 -
- - - - - Bermuda
GREEN 4 24 Sep 2022 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 24 Sep 2022 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Sep 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 25 Sep 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Sep 2022 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 9 26 Sep 2022 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 10 27 Sep 2022 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 11 27 Sep 2022 12:00 119 -
- - - - - United States, Cuba
GREEN 12 28 Sep 2022 00:00 209 Few people
- - - - United States
GREEN 13 28 Sep 2022 12:00 202 200 thousand
- - - United States
GREEN 14 29 Sep 2022 00:00 104 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 15 29 Sep 2022 12:00 112 -
- - - - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Honduras, Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Colombia5,252,387
+
United States4,811,360 
Mexico54,222 
Honduras7,728 
Guatemala366 
Nicaragua66,534 
Venezuela13,439 
Colombia267,819 
Costa Rica30,916 
50-100 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Cuba, Mexico, Jamaica, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Venezuela, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Brazil42,550,691
+
United States15,844,924 
Bahamas11,400 
Cuba150,424 
Mexico928,136 
Jamaica46,670 
Anguilla14,614 
Saint-Martin41,651 
Sint Maarten39,623 
Antigua and Barbuda34,835 
Guadeloupe14,479 
Honduras713,309 
Guatemala2,537,296 
Nicaragua3,988,067 
El Salvador698,783 
Venezuela3,748,702 
Colombia10,743,860 
Costa Rica2,474,359 
Panama371,634 
Brazil147,916 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Sep 2022 12:00 187 -
- - - - - Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador
Blue 2 23 Sep 2022 00:00 226 -
- - - - - Curaçao, Bonaire
Blue 3 23 Sep 2022 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 4 24 Sep 2022 00:00 96 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 5 24 Sep 2022 12:00 148 -
- - - - - Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 6 25 Sep 2022 00:00 117 -
- - - - - Venezuela, Costa Rica
Blue 7 25 Sep 2022 12:00 160 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Sep 2022 00:00 134 -
- - - - - United States, Cayman Islands, Guatemala, Colombia, Guyana
Blue 9 26 Sep 2022 12:00 127 -
- - - - - Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica
Blue 10 27 Sep 2022 00:00 211 480 thousand
- - - - United States, Cuba, Costa Rica
Blue 11 27 Sep 2022 12:00 202 20 thousand
- - - - United States, Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
Blue 12 28 Sep 2022 00:00 365 Few people
- - - - United States, Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
Blue 13 28 Sep 2022 12:00 445 830 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico, Haiti, Colombia
Blue 14 29 Sep 2022 00:00 215 2.8 million
- - - - United States, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia
Blue 15 29 Sep 2022 12:00 606 5.3 million
- - - - United States, Bahamas, Cuba, Mexico, Jamaica, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Venezuela, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Brazil




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC