Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for IAN-22 in United States, Cuba from 23 Sep 2022 09:00 UTC to 02 Oct 2022 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IAN-22

in United States, Cuba

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IAN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	5.0 m (04 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	61 km/h	5.0 m	158 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	162 km/h	5.0 m	555 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

162 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	United States	35,625

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	22 Sep 2022 12:00	191	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	23 Sep 2022 00:00	205	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Bermuda
3	23 Sep 2022 12:00	241	-		-	-	-	-	-	Bermuda
4	24 Sep 2022 00:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	24 Sep 2022 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2022 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2022 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2022 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cayman Islands
9	26 Sep 2022 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cayman Islands
10	27 Sep 2022 00:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cuba
11	27 Sep 2022 12:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba
12	28 Sep 2022 00:00	209	Few people			-	-	-	-	United States
13	28 Sep 2022 12:00	202	200 thousand				-	-	-	United States
14	29 Sep 2022 00:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
15	29 Sep 2022 12:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
16	30 Sep 2022 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
17	30 Sep 2022 12:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
18	01 Oct 2022 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
19	01 Oct 2022 12:00	83	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Panama, Colombia	419,151	+
	United States	33,278
	Mexico	4,635
	Guatemala	16,402
	Honduras	288,325
	Nicaragua	30,545
	El Salvador	17
	Colombia	27,873
	Panama	18,073
50-100 mm	United States, Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Brazil	11,038,160	+
	United States	1,228,808
	Cuba	73,298
	Haiti	35,961
	Jamaica	28,040
	Dominican Republic	31
	Mexico	805,683
	Belize	03
	Guatemala	2,861,113
	Honduras	813,048
	Nicaragua	1,486,406
	El Salvador	1,350,987
	Colombia	1,455,985
	Costa Rica	501,286
	Venezuela	46,393
	Panama	350,498
	Brazil	612

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	22 Sep 2022 12:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador
2	23 Sep 2022 00:00	226	-		-	-	-	-	-	Curaçao, Bonaire
3	23 Sep 2022 12:00	209	-		-	-	-	-	-	Colombia
4	24 Sep 2022 00:00	96	-		-	-	-	-	-	Colombia
5	24 Sep 2022 12:00	148	-		-	-	-	-	-	Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama
6	25 Sep 2022 00:00	117	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela, Costa Rica
7	25 Sep 2022 12:00	160	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2022 00:00	134	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Cayman Islands, Guatemala, Colombia, Guyana
9	26 Sep 2022 12:00	127	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica
10	27 Sep 2022 00:00	211	480 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Costa Rica
11	27 Sep 2022 12:00	202	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
12	28 Sep 2022 00:00	365	Few people			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
13	28 Sep 2022 12:00	445	830 thousand				-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Haiti, Colombia
14	29 Sep 2022 00:00	215	2.8 million			-	-	-	-	United States, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia
15	29 Sep 2022 12:00	538	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Honduras, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama
16	30 Sep 2022 00:00	305	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
17	30 Sep 2022 12:00	206	190 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
18	01 Oct 2022 00:00	141	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
19	01 Oct 2022 12:00	273	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Brazil

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.