Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for IAN-22 in United States, Cuba from 23 Sep 2022 09:00 UTC to 02 Oct 2022 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IAN-22

in United States, Cuba

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IAN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	112 km/h
Maximum storm surge	5.0 m (03 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	112 km/h	5.0 m	206 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	162 km/h	5.0 m	555 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

162 km/h

Up to 490 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	United States	485,309

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	22 Sep 2022 12:00	191	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	23 Sep 2022 00:00	205	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Bermuda
3	23 Sep 2022 12:00	241	-		-	-	-	-	-	Bermuda
4	24 Sep 2022 00:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	24 Sep 2022 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2022 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2022 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2022 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cayman Islands
9	26 Sep 2022 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cayman Islands
10	27 Sep 2022 00:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cuba
11	27 Sep 2022 12:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba
12	28 Sep 2022 00:00	209	Few people			-	-	-	-	United States
13	28 Sep 2022 12:00	202	200 thousand				-	-	-	United States
14	29 Sep 2022 00:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
15	29 Sep 2022 12:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
16	30 Sep 2022 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
17	30 Sep 2022 12:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Colombia	89
100-250 mm	United States, Cuba, Honduras, Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Colombia	1,273,240	+
	United States	483,543
	Cuba	10,835
	Mexico	28,823
	Honduras	4,286
	Guatemala	9,921
	Nicaragua	94,530
	Colombia	413,033
	Costa Rica	145,784
	Venezuela	16,408
	Panama	66,073
50-100 mm	United States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Saint-Barthélemy, Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Brazil, Guyana	52,718,122	+
	United States	33,793,135
	Cuba	952,519
	Dominican Republic	2,209
	Jamaica	172,899
	Saint-Barthélemy	10,436
	Mexico	761,608
	Honduras	639,811
	Guatemala	2,237,388
	El Salvador	1,098,449
	Nicaragua	2,117,990
	Colombia	7,891,786
	Costa Rica	1,996,861
	Venezuela	406,682
	Panama	635,346
	Brazil	877
	Guyana	119

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	22 Sep 2022 12:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador
2	23 Sep 2022 00:00	226	-		-	-	-	-	-	Curaçao, Bonaire
3	23 Sep 2022 12:00	209	-		-	-	-	-	-	Colombia
4	24 Sep 2022 00:00	96	-		-	-	-	-	-	Colombia
5	24 Sep 2022 12:00	148	-		-	-	-	-	-	Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama
6	25 Sep 2022 00:00	117	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela, Costa Rica
7	25 Sep 2022 12:00	160	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2022 00:00	134	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Cayman Islands, Guatemala, Colombia, Guyana
9	26 Sep 2022 12:00	127	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica
10	27 Sep 2022 00:00	211	480 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Costa Rica
11	27 Sep 2022 12:00	202	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
12	28 Sep 2022 00:00	365	Few people			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
13	28 Sep 2022 12:00	445	830 thousand				-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Haiti, Colombia
14	29 Sep 2022 00:00	215	2.8 million			-	-	-	-	United States, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia
15	29 Sep 2022 12:00	538	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Honduras, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama
16	30 Sep 2022 00:00	305	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
17	30 Sep 2022 12:00	295	1.3 million				-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Saint-Barthélemy, Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Brazil, Guyana

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.