Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
19 Jan 2023 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (19 Jan 22:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.7 m 96 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

151 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2023 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2023 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2023 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar79,093 
250-500 mmMadagascar1,166,682 
100-250 mmComoros, Madagascar4,864,341
+
Comoros265,961 
Madagascar4,598,379 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius14,673,835
+
Tanzania835,236 
Zambia395,913 
Malawi2,794,752 
Mozambique2,409,873 
Comoros197,514 
Madagascar6,301,703 
Mayotte240,014 
Zimbabwe273,123 
Mauritius1,225,702 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 192 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 275 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 111 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Blue 6 19 Jan 2023 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 19 Jan 2023 12:00 119 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2023 18:00 605 6.1 million
- - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Toamasina, Mahavanona, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18/01/2023 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2023 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18/01/2023 00:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 21:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 21:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 22:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 00:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 22:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.1
21/01/2023 00:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 21:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 05:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.1
18/01/2023 01:00 , Maxixe Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 01:00 , Chicoque Mozambique  0.0
20/01/2023 23:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 21:00 Toliara, Beaniky Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 00:00 KwaZulu Natal, Mapelana South Africa
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Mitriaky Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 Toliara, Manambato Madagascar
18/01/2023 00:00 , Gambrani Island La Ferme Mauritius
18/01/2023 00:00 , Ile Amsterdam La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands