Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for MAWAR-23 in Guam from 20 May 2023 00:00 UTC to 03 Jun 2023 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23

in Guam

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Exposed population	170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	187 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (23 May 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	187 km/h	0.3 m	182 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	245 km/h	0.6 m	964 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

245 km/h

Up to 170 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 May 2023 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	Guam	169,880
CAT. 1	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam	1,004	+
	Northern Mariana Islands	1,000
	Guam	04
Tropical Storm	Northern Mariana Islands	54,069

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	20 May 2023 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	20 May 2023 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	20 May 2023 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	20 May 2023 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
5	21 May 2023 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
6	21 May 2023 06:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
7	21 May 2023 12:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
8	21 May 2023 18:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
9	22 May 2023 00:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
10	22 May 2023 06:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	22 May 2023 12:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	22 May 2023 18:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	23 May 2023 00:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	23 May 2023 06:00	227	170 thousand				-	-	-	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 May 2023 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Guam	169,884
100-250 mm	Micronesia	21,746
50-100 mm	Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Malaysia, Indonesia	7,865,219	+
	Philippines	7,628,053
	Northern Mariana Islands	2,567
	Micronesia	21,379
	Palau	1,744
	Malaysia	80,955
	Indonesia	130,519

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	20 May 2023 00:00	153	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
2	20 May 2023 06:00	179	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
3	20 May 2023 12:00	110	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
4	20 May 2023 18:00	210	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	21 May 2023 00:00	203	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
6	21 May 2023 06:00	160	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
7	21 May 2023 12:00	215	Few people	-		-	-	-	-	Micronesia
8	21 May 2023 18:00	162	Few people	-		-	-	-	-	Micronesia
9	22 May 2023 00:00	180	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
10	22 May 2023 06:00	275	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	22 May 2023 12:00	152	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	22 May 2023 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	23 May 2023 00:00	186	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	23 May 2023 06:00	556	190 thousand				-	-	-	Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Micronesia, Palau, Malaysia, Indonesia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 May 2023 06:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.