Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23
in Guam
25 May 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 187 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (27 May 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 187 km/h 0.4 m 188 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 245 km/h 0.6 m 964 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 May 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormNorthern Mariana Islands, Guam215,395
+
Northern Mariana Islands45,510 
Guam169,884 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 May 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 May 2023 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 May 2023 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 20 May 2023 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 5 21 May 2023 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 6 21 May 2023 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 7 21 May 2023 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 8 21 May 2023 18:00 155 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 9 22 May 2023 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Micronesia
GREEN 10 22 May 2023 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 22 May 2023 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 22 May 2023 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 23 May 2023 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 23 May 2023 06:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 23 May 2023 12:00 216 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
GREEN 16 23 May 2023 18:00 205 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
GREEN 17 24 May 2023 00:00 166 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
ORANGE 18 24 May 2023 06:00 140 150 thousand
- - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
ORANGE 19 24 May 2023 12:00 158 170 thousand
- - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
GREEN 20 24 May 2023 18:00 169 2 thousand
- - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
GREEN 21 25 May 2023 00:00 227 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

964 mm

Up to 5 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 May 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia4,929 
50-100 mmPhilippines, Micronesia, Malaysia, Indonesia1,929,155
+
Philippines1,392,481 
Micronesia1,048 
Malaysia1,546 
Indonesia534,079 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 May 2023 00:00 153 -
- - - - - Micronesia
Blue 2 20 May 2023 06:00 179 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 3 20 May 2023 12:00 110 -
- - - - - Micronesia
Blue 4 20 May 2023 18:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 May 2023 00:00 203 -
- - - - - Micronesia
Blue 6 21 May 2023 06:00 160 -
- - - - - Micronesia
Blue 7 21 May 2023 12:00 215 Few people -
- - - - Micronesia
Blue 8 21 May 2023 18:00 162 Few people -
- - - - Micronesia
Blue 9 22 May 2023 00:00 180 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 10 22 May 2023 06:00 275 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 22 May 2023 12:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 22 May 2023 18:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 23 May 2023 00:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 23 May 2023 06:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 23 May 2023 12:00 278 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 23 May 2023 18:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 24 May 2023 00:00 178 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 24 May 2023 06:00 186 110 thousand
- - - - Guam, Malaysia
Blue 19 24 May 2023 12:00 295 170 thousand
- - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Blue 20 24 May 2023 18:00 246 -
- - - - - Guam
Blue 21 25 May 2023 00:00 416 5 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Micronesia, Malaysia, Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 May 2023 00:00 UTC