Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for MAWAR-23 in Guam from 20 May 2023 00:00 UTC to 03 Jun 2023 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23

in Guam

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Micronesia
Exposed population	150 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	115 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (21 May 07:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	115 km/h	0.4 m	160 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	245 km/h	0.6 m	964 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

245 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 May 2023 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam	152,834	+
	Northern Mariana Islands	2,567
	Guam	150,267
Tropical Storm	China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Micronesia	78,665	+
	China	1,653
	Northern Mariana Islands	52,502
	Guam	19,617
	Micronesia	4,891

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	20 May 2023 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	20 May 2023 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	20 May 2023 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	20 May 2023 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
5	21 May 2023 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
6	21 May 2023 06:00	173	150 thousand			-	-	-	-	China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Micronesia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 May 2023 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Micronesia	87
100-250 mm	China, Guam, Micronesia	240,238	+
	China	69,945
	Guam	169,884
	Micronesia	408
50-100 mm	China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Micronesia, Malaysia, Indonesia	15,084,229	+
	China	13,859,926
	Japan	8,161
	Taiwan	161
	Philippines	1,071,374
	Northern Mariana Islands	2,567
	Micronesia	45,225
	Malaysia	31,112
	Indonesia	65,700

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	20 May 2023 00:00	153	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
2	20 May 2023 06:00	179	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
3	20 May 2023 12:00	110	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
4	20 May 2023 18:00	210	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	21 May 2023 00:00	203	-		-	-	-	-	-	Micronesia
6	21 May 2023 06:00	532	240 thousand				-	-	-	China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Micronesia, Malaysia, Indonesia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 May 2023 06:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.