Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUBAN-18 in Yemen from 08 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC to 13 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS

Impact Single TC

HWRF

ECMWF

GFS

Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUBAN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Yemen
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (14 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Yemen)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS Current	111 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
GDACS Overall	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	08 Oct 2018 00:00	120	350 thousand	No people	Oman, Yemen
2	08 Oct 2018 06:00	130	90 thousand	20 thousand	Yemen
3	08 Oct 2018 12:00	139	150 thousand	No people	Yemen
4	08 Oct 2018 18:00	120	120 thousand	No people	Yemen
5	09 Oct 2018 00:00	130	620 thousand	No people	Yemen, Somalia
6	09 Oct 2018 06:00	130	1.3 million	No people	Yemen
7	09 Oct 2018 12:00	120	1.5 million	No people	Yemen
8	09 Oct 2018 18:00	139	720 thousand	210 thousand	Yemen
9	10 Oct 2018 00:00	139	1.5 million	310 thousand	Yemen
10	10 Oct 2018 06:00	139	1.5 million	40 thousand	Yemen
11	10 Oct 2018 12:00	139	950 thousand	40 thousand	Yemen
12	10 Oct 2018 18:00	139	1.1 million	70 thousand	Yemen
13	11 Oct 2018 00:00	139	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
14	11 Oct 2018 06:00	130	920 thousand	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
15	11 Oct 2018 12:00	120	1.2 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
16	11 Oct 2018 18:00	120	1.5 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
17	12 Oct 2018 00:00	111	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
18	12 Oct 2018 06:00	111	1.5 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
19	12 Oct 2018 12:00	111	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
20	12 Oct 2018 18:00	102	1.3 million	No people	Yemen
21	13 Oct 2018 00:00	111	1.4 million	No people	Yemen, Saudi Arabia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	08 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.4, 62.3
2	08 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.3, 61.6
3	08 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.2, 61.6
4	08 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.5, 61.2
5	09 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.9, 60.6
6	09 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.2, 60.1
7	09 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.4, 59.7
8	09 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.1, 59.9
9	10 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.1, 59.1
10	10 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.2, 58.9
11	10 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.4, 58.5
12	10 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.5, 58.5
13	11 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.5, 58.1
14	11 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	14.5, 58.1
15	11 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, 57.9
16	11 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, 57.8
17	12 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.6, 57.6
18	12 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.6, 57.4
19	12 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.6, 57.1
20	12 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.6, 56.4
21	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.6, 55.7
21	13 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	82000 people	no people	14.6, 54.2	Yemen
21	14 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	610000 people	no people	14.7, 52.5	Yemen
21	14 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	111	1.3 million people	no people	15, 50.7	Yemen
21	15 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	1.3 million people	no people	15.4, 49.4	Yemen
21	16 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.5, 48	Yemen

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Yemen
Saudi Arabia

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population
Al Mahrah	Yemen	-
Hadhramaut	Yemen	-
Ash Sharqiyah	Saudi Arabia	-
'Ataq	Yemen	-
Undefined	Yemen	-
Najran	Saudi Arabia	320000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ghayl Ba Wazir		Yemen	City	-
Al Mukalla		Yemen	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Al Gaidah	AAY	30	Civ.	Paved	No	8800
Qishn	IHN	30	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Riyan	RIY	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Mukalla	MKX	unknown				0
Canoxy		1003				0
Sayun	GXF	640	Civ.	Unpaved	No	9800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Ras Fartak		Yemen
Nishtun	YENIS	Yemen
Sayhut		Yemen
Ash Shihr		Yemen
Mukalla	YEMKX	Yemen

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Duqm, Oman. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2018 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (59 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 25 of 14 Oct 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Oct 2018 01:00	Duqm	Oman	0.3
	13 Oct 2018 08:00	Qaysad	Oman	0.3
	13 Oct 2018 08:00	Lakabi	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 08:00	Sawqirah	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 01:00	Nafun	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 21:00	As Sirab	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Shuwayr	Oman	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 03:00	Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 04:00	As Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 04:00	Nishtun	Yemen	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 02:00	Lakba	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 21:00	Al Khaluf	Oman	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 04:00	Qasasil	Qatar	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 04:00	Umm Bab	Qatar	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 04:00	Al Uqayr	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 04:00	Ra's Munaysif	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 05:00	Tabut	Yemen	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 05:00	Hayrut	Yemen	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 21:00	Filim	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 08:00	Quwayrah	Oman	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 01:00	Umm Said	Qatar	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 05:00	Haswayn	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Dukhan	Qatar	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 07:00	Al Aziziyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Az Zallaq	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Ar Rumaythah	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Ad Dur	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Jaww	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 07:00	Dasah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 01:00	Al Khubar	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 07:00	Al Qurayyah	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Hamad Town	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Salmbad	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	'Isa Town	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Ar Rifa	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Ar Rifa' ash Sharqi	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Karranah	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Al Seef	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Jidd Hafs	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Al Manamah	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 01:00	Ar Rakah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 07:00	Zahr	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 06:00	Ar Ruways	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 04:00	Ad Dawhah	Qatar	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 00:00	Al Wakrah	Qatar	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 13:00	Al Khawr	Qatar	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 07:00	Fararah	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 07:00	Miji	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Dhuwwah	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Jazirah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Bu Lifiyat	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 23:00	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Saqr	Yemen	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 23:00	Alela	Eritrea	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 23:00	Aseb	Eritrea	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 23:00	Aylu	Eritrea	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	'Arad	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 19:00	Al Hidd	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 04:00	Al Faydami	Yemen	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.