Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUBAN-18 in Yemen from 08 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC to 13 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS

Impact Single TC

HWRF

ECMWF

GFS

Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUBAN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries	Yemen
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (14 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Yemen)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS Current	111 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
GDACS Overall	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

111 km/h Current

Up to 1.3 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat. 1 or higher	Countries
1	08 Oct 2018 00:00	120	350 thousand	No people	Oman, Yemen
2	08 Oct 2018 06:00	130	90 thousand	20 thousand	Yemen
3	08 Oct 2018 12:00	139	150 thousand	No people	Yemen
4	08 Oct 2018 18:00	120	120 thousand	No people	Yemen
5	09 Oct 2018 00:00	130	620 thousand	No people	Yemen, Somalia
6	09 Oct 2018 06:00	130	1.3 million	No people	Yemen
7	09 Oct 2018 12:00	120	1.5 million	No people	Yemen
8	09 Oct 2018 18:00	139	720 thousand	210 thousand	Yemen
9	10 Oct 2018 00:00	139	1.5 million	310 thousand	Yemen
10	10 Oct 2018 06:00	139	1.5 million	40 thousand	Yemen
11	10 Oct 2018 12:00	139	950 thousand	40 thousand	Yemen
12	10 Oct 2018 18:00	139	1.1 million	70 thousand	Yemen
13	11 Oct 2018 00:00	139	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
14	11 Oct 2018 06:00	130	920 thousand	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
15	11 Oct 2018 12:00	120	1.2 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
16	11 Oct 2018 18:00	120	1.5 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
17	12 Oct 2018 00:00	111	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
18	12 Oct 2018 06:00	111	1.5 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
19	12 Oct 2018 12:00	111	1.3 million	No people	Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia
20	12 Oct 2018 18:00	102	1.3 million	No people	Yemen
21	13 Oct 2018 00:00	111	1.4 million	No people	Yemen, Saudi Arabia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	08 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.4, 62.3
2	08 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.3, 61.6
3	08 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.2, 61.6
4	08 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.5, 61.2
5	09 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.9, 60.6
6	09 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.2, 60.1
7	09 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.4, 59.7
8	09 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.1, 59.9
9	10 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.1, 59.1
10	10 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.2, 58.9
11	10 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.4, 58.5
12	10 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.5, 58.5
13	11 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.5, 58.1
14	11 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	14.5, 58.1
15	11 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, 57.9
16	11 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, 57.8
17	12 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.6, 57.6
18	12 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.6, 57.4
19	12 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.6, 57.1
20	12 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.6, 56.4
21	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.6, 55.7
21	13 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	82000 people	no people	14.6, 54.2	Yemen
21	14 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	610000 people	no people	14.7, 52.5	Yemen
21	14 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	111	1.3 million people	no people	15, 50.7	Yemen
21	15 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	1.3 million people	no people	15.4, 49.4	Yemen
21	16 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.5, 48	Yemen

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Exposed population

Countries

Country
Yemen
Saudi Arabia

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population
Al Mahrah	Yemen	-
Hadhramaut	Yemen	-
Ash Sharqiyah	Saudi Arabia	-
'Ataq	Yemen	-
Undefined	Yemen	-
Najran	Saudi Arabia	320000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population	Distance
Ghayl Ba Wazir		Yemen	City	-	682 km
Al Mukalla		Yemen	City	-	708 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)	Distance
Al Gaidah	AAY	30	Civ.	Paved	No	8800	417 km
Qishn	IHN	30	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200	440 km
Riyan	RIY	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800	681 km
Mukalla	MKX	unknown				0	708 km
Canoxy		1003				0	720 km
Sayun	GXF	640	Civ.	Unpaved	No	9800	758 km

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country	Distance
Ras Fartak		Yemen	392 km
Nishtun	YENIS	Yemen	400 km
Sayhut		Yemen	490 km
Ash Shihr		Yemen	670 km
Mukalla	YEMKX	Yemen	707 km

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Tamnum, Yemen. This height is estimated for 14 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (64 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 13 Oct 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	14 Oct 2018 12:00	Tamnum	Yemen	0.3
	14 Oct 2018 11:00	Sharkhat	Yemen	0.3
	14 Oct 2018 08:00	Qishn	Yemen	0.3
	14 Oct 2018 09:00	Itab	Yemen	0.3
	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Duqm	Oman	0.3
	14 Oct 2018 14:00	Musaina'a	Yemen	0.3
	13 Oct 2018 04:00	Qaysad	Oman	0.3
	13 Oct 2018 01:00	Nafun	Oman	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 14:00	Raida	Yemen	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 14:00	Hasana	Yemen	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 04:00	Lakabi	Oman	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 14:00	Sarar	Yemen	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 04:00	Sawqirah	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 02:00	As Sirab	Oman	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 09:00	Al Qumrah	Yemen	0.2
	14 Oct 2018 16:00	Qusayir	Yemen	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 00:00	Shuwayr	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 11:00	Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 11:00	As Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 11:00	Qasasil	Qatar	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 11:00	Umm Bab	Qatar	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 11:00	Al Uqayr	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 04:00	Lakba	Oman	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 11:00	Ra's Munaysif	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	13 Oct 2018 05:00	Umm Said	Qatar	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 13:00	Dukhan	Qatar	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 13:00	Al Aziziyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 13:00	Ar Rumaythah	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 13:00	Ad Dur	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 13:00	Jaww	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 06:00	Dasah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 13:00	Al Qurayyah	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 13:00	Az Zallaq	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 14:00	Hamad Town	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 14:00	Salmbad	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 14:00	'Isa Town	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 14:00	Ar Rifa	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 14:00	Ar Rifa' ash Sharqi	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 14:00	Karranah	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 14:00	Al Seef	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 14:00	Jidd Hafs	Bahrain	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 14:00	Al Manamah	Bahrain	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 16:00	Dhafghan	Yemen	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 02:00	Al Khaluf	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 06:00	Ar Ruways	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 08:00	Al Khubar	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 13:00	Tabut	Yemen	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 13:00	Hayrut	Yemen	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 04:00	Quwayrah	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 06:00	Zahr	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 04:00	Ad Dawhah	Qatar	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 05:00	Al Wakrah	Qatar	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 01:00	Dhuwwah	Oman	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Saqr	Yemen	0.1
	12 Oct 2018 13:00	Nishtun	Yemen	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 08:00	Ar Rakah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 06:00	Fararah	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 09:00	Miji	Oman	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 01:00	Jazirah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 01:00	Bu Lifiyat	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 06:00	Haswayn	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 18:00	Hami	Yemen	0.1
	14 Oct 2018 17:00	Khird	Yemen	0.1
	13 Oct 2018 09:00	Filim	Oman	0.1