Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (30 Aug 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
30 Aug 2021 00:00 - 31 Aug 2021 00:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 139 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 510000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 83 350000 people no people 14.9, -103.6
GREEN
6 28 Aug 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 102 980000 people no people 16.3, -104.7
GREEN
6 28 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 111 1.5 million people no people 18, -105.6
GREEN
6 29 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 1 million people no people 19.9, -106.5
GREEN
6 29 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 130 840000 people no people 21.5, -107.5
ORANGE
6 30 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 139 650000 people 440000 people 22.7, -108.7
ORANGE
6 31 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 670000 people 300000 people 24.4, -110.6 Mexico
GREEN
6 01 Sep 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 26, -112.1 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
La Paz Baja California Sur Mexico Major city 170000 people
Villa Constitución Baja California Sur Mexico City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Los Cabos International SJD 109 Civ. Paved Yes 9800
Punta Colorada PCO unknown 0
Punta Pescadero 7 0
Leon LAP 21 Civ. Paved Yes 8200
La Paz 26 0
Arroyo Capo 20 0
Villa Constitucion VIB 43 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
San Hose Del Cabo Mexico
Buenavista Mexico
La Paz Mexico
San Juan de la Costa MXSJC Mexico

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Datilito, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (66 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 27 Aug 2021 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Datilito Mexico  0.5
30 Aug 2021 21:00 La Paz Mexico  0.5
31 Aug 2021 00:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.4
30 Aug 2021 12:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.4
30 Aug 2021 12:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 08:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 17:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 11:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 13:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 15:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 20:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Rosario Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 16:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 10:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 22:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 10:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 08:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 15:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 15:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 00:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 16:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 00:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 00:00 Cunano Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 00:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 02:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 10:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 15:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Quinones Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 14:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 01:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.1