Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
19 Feb 2023 16 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
    Glide number: TC-2023-000023-MDG
    Exposed countries Mauritius
    Exposed population 40 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 253 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (21 Feb 22:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 253 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 253 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

    Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France
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    Wind

      253 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 43000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 10 Feb 2023 16:00 127 No people No people
        Green 2 10 Feb 2023 22:00 127 No people No people
        Green 3 11 Feb 2023 04:00 158 No people No people
        Green 4 11 Feb 2023 10:00 158 No people No people
        Green 5 11 Feb 2023 16:00 190 No people No people
        Green 6 11 Feb 2023 22:00 211 No people No people
        Green 7 12 Feb 2023 04:00 201 No people No people
        Green 8 12 Feb 2023 10:00 201 No people No people
        Green 9 12 Feb 2023 16:00 190 No people No people
        Green 10 12 Feb 2023 22:00 201 No people No people
        Green 11 13 Feb 2023 04:00 211 No people No people
        Green 12 13 Feb 2023 10:00 201 No people No people
        Green 13 13 Feb 2023 16:00 190 No people No people
        Green 14 13 Feb 2023 22:00 169 No people No people
        Green 15 14 Feb 2023 04:00 158 No people No people
        Green 16 14 Feb 2023 10:00 158 No people No people
        Green 17 14 Feb 2023 16:00 179 No people No people
        Green 18 14 Feb 2023 22:00 232 No people No people
        Green 19 15 Feb 2023 04:00 243 No people No people
        Green 20 15 Feb 2023 10:00 243 No people No people
        Green 21 15 Feb 2023 16:00 243 No people No people
        Green 22 15 Feb 2023 22:00 232 No people No people
        Green 23 16 Feb 2023 04:00 232 No people No people
        Green 24 16 Feb 2023 10:00 232 450 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 25 16 Feb 2023 16:00 232 660 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 26 16 Feb 2023 22:00 232 2.6 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Orange 27 17 Feb 2023 04:00 211 8.1 million 420 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 28 17 Feb 2023 10:00 201 10.5 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 29 17 Feb 2023 16:00 211 18.3 million 3.1 million Madagascar
        Orange 30 17 Feb 2023 22:00 211 17.9 million 1.2 million Madagascar
        Orange 31 18 Feb 2023 04:00 222 18.4 million 2.9 million Madagascar
        Red 32 18 Feb 2023 10:00 222 17.8 million 1.9 million Madagascar
        Red 33 18 Feb 2023 16:00 222 17.6 million 1.1 million Madagascar
        Red 34 18 Feb 2023 22:00 222 19.1 million 2.2 million Madagascar
        Red 35 19 Feb 2023 04:00 232 21.9 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Red 36 19 Feb 2023 10:00 222 24.4 million 3.7 million Madagascar, Mozambique
        Orange 37 19 Feb 2023 16:00 253 40 thousand 40 thousand Mauritius

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Category
          (WMO/RSMC) **           		Max winds
          (km/h)
          (WMO/RSMC)           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 10 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 1 127 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 111 -14.8, 106.7
          GREEN
          		 2 10 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 1 127 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 111 -14.8, 106
          GREEN
          		 3 11 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 2 158 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 139 -14.8, 105.1
          GREEN
          		 4 11 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 2 158 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 139 -14.8, 104.1
          GREEN
          		 5 11 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 3 190 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 167 -14.8, 103.1
          GREEN
          		 6 11 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -14.8, 102.1
          GREEN
          		 7 12 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 3 201 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -15, 101.2
          GREEN
          		 8 12 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 3 201 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -15, 100.2
          GREEN
          		 9 12 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 3 190 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 167 -15.1, 99
          GREEN
          		 10 12 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 3 201 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -15.1, 98
          GREEN
          		 11 13 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -15.2, 96.9
          GREEN
          		 12 13 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 3 201 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -15.3, 95.9
          GREEN
          		 13 13 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 3 190 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 167 -15.4, 94.6
          GREEN
          		 14 13 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 2 169 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 148 -15.4, 93.7
          GREEN
          		 15 14 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 2 158 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 139 -15.3, 92.5
          GREEN
          		 16 14 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 2 158 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 139 -15.4, 91.3
          GREEN
          		 17 14 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 3 179 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 157 -15.3, 90.1
          GREEN
          		 18 14 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 3 201 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -15.2, 88.8
          GREEN
          		 19 15 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 232 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -15.2, 87.6
          GREEN
          		 20 15 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 4 243 no people no people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 213 -15, 86.3
          GREEN
          		 21 15 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 4 243 no people no people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 213 -14.9, 84.9
          GREEN
          		 22 15 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 232 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -14.8, 83.6
          GREEN
          		 23 16 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 232 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -14.7, 82.3
          GREEN
          		 24 16 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -14.8, 81
          GREEN
          		 25 16 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -14.9, 79.6
          GREEN
          		 26 16 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -15.1, 78.1
          GREEN
          		 27 17 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -15.3, 76.6
          GREEN
          		 28 17 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -15.5, 75.2
          GREEN
          		 29 17 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 4 232 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -15.8, 74
          GREEN
          		 30 17 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -16, 72.9
          GREEN
          		 31 18 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -16.1, 71.6
          GREEN
          		 32 18 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -16.1, 70.5
          GREEN
          		 33 18 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -16.1, 69.3
          GREEN
          		 34 18 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -16.3, 68.2
          GREEN
          		 35 19 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 5 253 no people 28000 people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 222 -16.6, 67
          GREEN
          		 36 19 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 5 253 no people 43000 people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 222 -16.9, 65.5
          ORANGE
          		 37 19 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 5 253 43000 people 43000 people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 222 -17.3, 64.1
          GREEN
          		 37 19 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 1 130 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 114 -17.6, 62.4
          **
          Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Mauritius 40000 people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Mauritius Mauritius 40000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Rodrigues Plaine Corail RRG 40 Civ. Paved Yes 3300

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Port Mathurin Mauritius
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Ambahy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 Feb 2023 22:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (13 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 30 of 17 Feb 2023 22:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.2
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.2
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.2
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.1
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.1
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
          21 Feb 2023 18:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
          21 Feb 2023 22:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.1