Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

11 Feb 2020 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (11 Feb 13:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.3 m	30 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mozambique, Tanzania, Comoros	122,521	+
	Tanzania	44
	Mozambique	12,064
	Comoros	110,413
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar	966,923	+
	Tanzania	33,820
	Mozambique	19,855
	Comoros	226,283
	Mayotte	206,099
	Madagascar	480,866

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	292	120 thousand			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Feb 2020 13:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Feb 2020 13:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Feb 2020 13:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Feb 2020 13:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Feb 2020 13:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Feb 2020 13:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Feb 2020 13:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Feb 2020 13:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 13:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 13:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 13:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 13:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 13:30	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 13:45	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 13:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 13:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Mananara	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 12:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 16:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 16:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 12:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 14:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 16:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 16:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 16:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 16:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:45	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:45	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:45	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 15:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 12:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 14:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 14:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 14:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 14:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 13:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 13:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.