Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
17 Jan 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (17 Jan 09:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 58 km/h 0.1 m 68 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

158 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar23,792 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 140 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar982 
100-250 mmMadagascar164,664 
50-100 mmMadagascar208,854 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 625 170 thousand
- - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Induna, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 17 Jan 2021 09:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Induna Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Beula Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Jaja Tanzania  0.1