Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
17 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (17 Jan 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 61 km/h 0.1 m 38 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

Up to 90 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar92,012 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar39 
250-500 mmMadagascar94,428 
100-250 mmMadagascar699,665 
50-100 mmMadagascar880,665 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 644 790 thousand
- - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Ampasina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 Jan 2021 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:30 Antunes Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:30 Chamba Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:30 Beira Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:30 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 17:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 17:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 17:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:00 Irodo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:00 Ampondrabe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:00 Lokia Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:00 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:30 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:30 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:30 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:30 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 15:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 15:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:15 Manica Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 14:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:45 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:45 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:45 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:30 Ankaratravitra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:15 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:15 Ampara Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:15 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:30 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:30 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:30 China Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:30 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 13:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:45 Faux-Cap Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:45 Antavy Atsimo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 16:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1