Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
18 Jan 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (19 Jan 17:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 76 km/h 0.5 m 144 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

Up to 180 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar181,137 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 126 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMadagascar5,903 
500-750 mmMadagascar403,893 
250-500 mmMadagascar809,498 
100-250 mmMadagascar1,767,445 
50-100 mmMadagascar5,050,442 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 38 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 908 3 million
- Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19 Jan 2021 17:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.5
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.5
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.5
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.5
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.5
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.5
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.5
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.5
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Benjana Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 12:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:30 Tanambe Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:30 Manompana Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:30 Vatobe Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Fananehana Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Antanambe Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Anoromby Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 15:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 15:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 22:45 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 22:45 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 22:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 22:45 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 22:45 Mananara Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 22:45 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 22:45 Seranambe Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 11:45 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 15:45 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 15:45 Mahambo Madagascar  0.3
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 04:45 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 08:45 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 05:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:00 Somanga Tanzania  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:00 Pombwe Tanzania  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:00 Jaja Tanzania  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:15 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Anompaka Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Mahitsihazo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 08:30 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 08:30 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:15 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:15 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 10:30 Antunes Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 10:30 Chamba Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 10:30 Beira Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 10:30 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:00 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.2
19 Jan 2021 10:45 Manica Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 16:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 16:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 05:15 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 10:45 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 13:15 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 10:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 11:30 Ambodipont-Sahana Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 11:30 Ampaha Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 11:30 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 11:30 Ambinany Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 11:30 Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Nacala Velha Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Nacala Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 16:15 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 16:15 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 16:15 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 16:15 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 09:30 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 09:30 Ampara Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 10:15 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 22:15 Ambatoharanana Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 22:15 Andrafiamadinika Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 19:30 Mbwera Tanzania  0.1
19 Jan 2021 17:30 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 17:30 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 17:30 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 10:15 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 10:15 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:45 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:45 Manakara Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:45 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 11:15 Irodo Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 11:15 Ambaritsatrana Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 11:15 Ampondrabe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 11:15 Lokia Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 00:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 00:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:15 Amado Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 06:15 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 06:15 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 06:15 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 12:45 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 12:45 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 10:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:45 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:45 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:45 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:45 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:30 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:30 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 13:15 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 13:15 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:45 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:30 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 16:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:30 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:30 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:30 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 06:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 06:00 Esama Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 06:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 15:45 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 15:45 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:00 Kiechuru Tanzania  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 12:30 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 16:15 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 13:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 17:15 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 17:15 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 10:45 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:30 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:30 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:30 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:30 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:15 Beula Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:15 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:15 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 00:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Chicoque Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Inhambane Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Guilande Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Banga Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 17:15 Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 16:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 03:45 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 03:45 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 03:45 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 03:45 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:15 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:15 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 12:15 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1