Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
23 Jan 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 126 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.3 m (23 Jan 00:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 126 km/h 2.3 m 162 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique622,683 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 8 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 20 Jan 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 10 21 Jan 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 21 Jan 2021 12:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 22 Jan 2021 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 22 Jan 2021 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 14 23 Jan 2021 00:00 126 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

907 mm

Up to 7 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmZimbabwe, Madagascar, Mozambique, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland6,961,953
+
Madagascar52,982 
Mozambique2,843,589 
Zimbabwe488,575 
Reunion4,094 
South Africa2,897,677 
Swaziland675,036 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland8,967,667
+
Tanzania159,461 
Zambia125,918 
Malawi485,287 
Madagascar882,272 
Mozambique2,288,994 
Zimbabwe2,506,600 
Mauritius266,443 
Reunion13,034 
South Africa1,512,226 
Swaziland727,432 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 179 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 390 80 thousand
- - - Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 176 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 280 2 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 299 40 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 504 140 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 665 710 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 8 20 Jan 2021 00:00 360 400 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 9 20 Jan 2021 12:00 492 390 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 10 21 Jan 2021 00:00 232 50 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe
Blue 11 21 Jan 2021 12:00 238 260 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion, Madagascar
Blue 12 22 Jan 2021 00:00 162 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 13 22 Jan 2021 12:00 171 170 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 14 23 Jan 2021 00:00 230 7 million
- - - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

2.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.3m in Ambanhe, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 00:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 00:30 Ambanhe Mozambique  2.3
23 Jan 2021 00:30 Ampara Mozambique  2.3
23 Jan 2021 00:30 Manica Mozambique  2.3
23 Jan 2021 00:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.3
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Beira Mozambique  2.0
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Damiao Mozambique  2.0
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Antunes Mozambique  1.9
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Chamba Mozambique  1.9
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Nhangau Mozambique  1.9
23 Jan 2021 02:15 Metambanhe Mozambique  1.9
23 Jan 2021 02:45 Divinhe Mozambique  1.5
23 Jan 2021 02:45 Chiloane Mozambique  1.5
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Panaca Mozambique  1.1
23 Jan 2021 02:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 02:15 Jo Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 02:15 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 03:30 Natalia Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 03:30 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Tama Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 03:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 03:45 Catine Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 04:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 04:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 03:45 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Marovoha Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ampitily Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Singalana Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 01:45 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 01:45 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 01:45 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 01:45 China Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 01:45 Mariano Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Catembe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Maputo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Joannisse Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Maziba Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 02:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 02:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 02:15 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:30 Aiai Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:30 Cimbene Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Canhamba Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Beula Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Maxixe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Chicoque Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Inhambane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Guilande Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Banga Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Maguemba Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Macashale Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Macanzele Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 09:00 Afo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:00 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Contra Costa Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Jacob Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Chavanine Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Gueima Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Behavoa Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Mahupe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Induna Mozambique  0.2
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Mahitsihazo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 07:45 Bela Vista Mozambique  0.1
24 Jan 2021 07:45 Machavene Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Inhampsi Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:30 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:30 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:30 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:30 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:30 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:30 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:30 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:15 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:30 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:30 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:30 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:30 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Manakara Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 02:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 02:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 02:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 02:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 18:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 18:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 18:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:30 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 David Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:30 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 05:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 11:30 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 11:30 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 11:30 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 11:30 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 11:30 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 11:30 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 11:30 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Enkovukeni South Africa  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:30 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 12:30 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Miquindane Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Lurio Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Mauala Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 12:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Mabibi South Africa  0.1
23 Jan 2021 15:30 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 15:30 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 19:30 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
24 Jan 2021 19:30 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
24 Jan 2021 19:30 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Tsiboka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Anadramy Nord Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Bekoropoka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Mangolovolo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 01:45 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 05:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 05:45 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 05:45 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:15 Arire Mozambique  0.1
24 Jan 2021 16:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 16:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1