Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (26 Aug 16:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 90 km/h 0.2 m 413 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 450 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico450,290 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico398,825 
100-250 mmMexico1,583,970 
50-100 mmMexico1,527,666 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 534 2 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Cuantla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 26 Aug 2021 16:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
26 Aug 2021 16:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 18:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 12:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 17:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 17:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 16:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 15:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 13:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 15:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 15:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 17:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 13:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 12:15 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 17:15 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 13:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 16:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:00 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 15:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 15:45 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1