Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
28 Aug 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 112 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (28 Aug 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 112 km/h 0.4 m 179 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 1.2 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico1,171,390 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 126 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMexico4,375 
500-750 mmMexico93,635 
250-500 mmMexico1,328,754 
100-250 mmMexico5,107,154 
50-100 mmMexico5,380,530 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 413 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 363 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 391 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 193 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 225 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 143 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 1162 6.5 million
- Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in La Manzanilla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2021 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Aug 2021 09:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.4
28 Aug 2021 11:30 El Tule Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 11:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 07:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 08:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 10:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 07:30 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 08:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 11:15 Monteon Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 11:45 Santiago Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 11:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 11:30 Cayaca Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 11:30 San Blas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 11:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 10:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 10:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 09:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 11:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 07:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 10:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:30 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:30 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 10:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 09:45 El Real Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:00 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:45 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:45 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 09:15 Apisa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:15 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:15 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 10:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 10:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 10:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:30 Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 10:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:15 Cedros Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 09:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 Chula Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:45 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:45 San Diego United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:45 Coronado United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:45 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:15 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:15 Chamela Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:45 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:30 Chola Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:30 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:30 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 09:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 09:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:45 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 09:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:30 Marmol Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Empalme Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 Azure Vista United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 Roseville United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 Loma Portal United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 09:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 08:15 La Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1