Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
27 Aug 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 90 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (27 Aug 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 119 km/h 0.4 m 225 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 90 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico86,635 
Tropical StormMexico1,889,759 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 148 90 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMexico3,737 
500-750 mmMexico543,421 
250-500 mmMexico1,571,783 
100-250 mmMexico6,625,274 
50-100 mmMexico4,875,522 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 413 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 363 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 391 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 193 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 1171 8.7 million
- Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in La Manzanilla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 27 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
27 Aug 2021 21:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.4
27 Aug 2021 22:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
27 Aug 2021 22:00 Monteon Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 23:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 21:00 La Boca Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 23:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 22:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 19:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 18:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 23:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 22:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 19:15 Chula Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:45 Chupadero Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:45 Apisa Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 18:00 El Tule Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 18:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 19:30 Chamela Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 21:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:45 El Real Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 21:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 22:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 23:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 19:00 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Cedros Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:30 La Lima Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 20:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 21:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:30 Santiago Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:30 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:45 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:45 El Marques Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:45 La Choya Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:45 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 19:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 19:30 Chola Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:30 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:15 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:30 Marmol Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:30 Florida Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 19:30 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 19:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:00 Erendria Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:30 Altata Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:15 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:15 Calvario Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:15 Coyuquillas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:45 La Paz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:15 Empalme Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:30 Cunano Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:15 San Diego United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:15 Coronado United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:15 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:15 Boal United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 22:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 19:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 23:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1