Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
27 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (27 Aug 14:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 115 km/h 0.4 m 193 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 950 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico952,554 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 137 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMexico7,442 
250-500 mmMexico568,206 
100-250 mmMexico3,043,429 
50-100 mmMexico2,287,657 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 413 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 363 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 391 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 709 3.6 million
- - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in La Manzanilla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 27 Aug 2021 14:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
27 Aug 2021 14:30 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.4
27 Aug 2021 15:15 El Tule Mexico  0.3
27 Aug 2021 15:15 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
27 Aug 2021 17:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 17:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 17:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 12:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 13:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 16:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 15:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 15:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 16:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 12:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 12:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 17:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 13:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 12:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 17:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 15:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 15:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 16:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 16:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 16:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 15:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 16:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 16:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:30 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:00 Erendria Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:00 Cunano Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 15:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 15:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:45 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:45 Boal United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 15:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:15 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:15 Cedros Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 15:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:45 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:45 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:30 Chola Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:00 Coronado United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:45 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:30 Azure Vista United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:30 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:30 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:30 Roseville United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:30 Loma Portal United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:30 San Diego United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 18:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:00 Chamela Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 16:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:45 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:15 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:00 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 17:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1