Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
12 Oct 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (12 Oct 06:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 76 km/h 0.3 m 105 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 0.4 m 386 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

76 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico12,236
+
United States415 
Mexico11,821 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 12 Oct 2021 00:00 122 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico2,154 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico1,300,848
+
United States573,639 
Mexico727,208 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico7,511,761
+
United States5,440,379 
Mexico2,071,381 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 215 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 272 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 319 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 12 Oct 2021 00:00 280 1.3 million
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in San Felipe, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2021 06:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2021 06:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2021 06:30 La Choya Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2021 06:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:45 La Gloria Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:45 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 01:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Molino Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:30 North Beach United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Gardendale United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Doyle United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Orange Grove United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Portland United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Gregory United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 La Jolla United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 The Muirlands United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Azure Vista United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Ocean Beach United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Mission Beach United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Easter Cross United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Roseville United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Loma Portal United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 San Diego United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Coronado United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Imperial Beach United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Boal United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Las Flores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Stuart United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Fallbrook Junction United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Camp Pendleton South United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Escondido Junction United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Oceanside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Carlsbad United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Ponto United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Leucadia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Encinitas United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Cardiff-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Solana Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Green Valley Mobile Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Del Mar United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Ingleside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Aransas Pass United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Agra United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Sorrento United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Signal Hill United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Surfside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Seal Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Newport Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Cliff Haven United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Bay Shores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 San Clemente United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Capistrano Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Balboa United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Corona del Mar United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Crystal Cove United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 San Joaquin Hills United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Emerald Bay United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Laguna Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Canyon Acres United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Top of the World United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 South Laguna United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Two Harbors United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Avalon United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Las Flores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Castellammare United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Pacific Palisades United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Santa Monica United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Sawtelle United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Marina del Rey United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Playa del Rey United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Alsace United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 El Segundo United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Manhattan Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Hermosa Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Palos Verdes Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Clifton United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Redondo Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Rolling Hills United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 San Pedro United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Wilmington United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Estes United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Rockport United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Copano Village United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Fulton United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Holiday Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Lamar United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Malibu United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Monte Nido United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Empalme Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Peary Place United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:30 El Descanso Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:30 La Mision Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:30 Riviera United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:30 Vattman United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:30 Loyola Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:30 Orange Grove United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:30 La Parra Landing United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Encino Solo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Liliba Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 10:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 10:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 10:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 07:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1