Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19
in Mexico
15 Nov 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (15 Nov 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 94 km/h 0.3 m 267 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 573 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico10,045 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico9,344 
100-250 mmMexico229,617 
50-100 mmMexico262,769 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 243 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 206 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 657 240 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Primero de Mayo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Nov 2019 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Nov 2019 13:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  0.3
16 Nov 2019 02:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 02:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 13:15 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 13:00 Tampico Alta Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 02:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 13:00 La Presita Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 16:45 Salinas Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 16:45 Buen Pais Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 16:45 Alvarado Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 16:45 Conejo Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 09:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 17:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 02:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:15 Loreto Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 17:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 17:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 17:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 03:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 15:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 15:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Mulege Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 20:45 Datilito Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 20:45 La Paz Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 16:45 Veracruz Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 16:45 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 03:00 San Jose Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 03:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 20:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 20:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 20:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:45 Rosario Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 02:45 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 17:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 03:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 03:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 15:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 02:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 12:45 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 02:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 16:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 02:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 01:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 02:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 09:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 13:15 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 13:15 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 03:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:45 Salmoral Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 02:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 02:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 01:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 17:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 17:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 02:15 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 01:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 01:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 03:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 03:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 03:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 03:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 03:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 08:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 08:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 13:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 21:30 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 21:30 San Jose de los Leones Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 02:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 El Tular Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 13:15 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 01:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 03:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 15:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 01:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 01:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 15:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
18 Nov 2019 02:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1