Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19
in Mexico
15 Nov 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (15 Nov 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 115 km/h 0.2 m 252 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 573 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico41,769 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 15 Nov 2019 18:00 144 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico01 
100-250 mmMexico337,059 
50-100 mmMexico505,215 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 243 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 206 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 267 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Nov 2019 18:00 541 340 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Nov 2019 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Nov 2019 19:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 19:00 Los Pericos Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 18:45 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 22:45 Alvarado Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 22:45 Conejo Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 22:45 Veracruz Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 22:45 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 18:45 Salinas Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 18:45 Buen Pais Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 18:45 La Presita Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 20:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 20:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 00:00 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 00:00 San Jose de los Leones Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 23:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 23:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 23:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 18:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 21:15 Salmoral Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:00 La Pesca Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 23:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 00:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 El Tular Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1