Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19
in Mexico
16 Nov 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (16 Nov 23:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 108 km/h 0.3 m 240 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 573 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico14 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 15 Nov 2019 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 16 Nov 2019 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 16 Nov 2019 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 16 Nov 2019 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 16 Nov 2019 18:00 112 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico54,814 
50-100 mmMexico176,043 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 243 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 206 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 267 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Nov 2019 18:00 252 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 16 Nov 2019 00:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 16 Nov 2019 06:00 312 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 16 Nov 2019 12:00 279 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 16 Nov 2019 18:00 547 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in San Juanico, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Nov 2019 23:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Nov 2019 23:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.3
16 Nov 2019 23:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.3
16 Nov 2019 23:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.3
16 Nov 2019 23:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 19:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 19:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 19:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 19:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 19:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 19:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 21:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 21:15 Loreto Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 19:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 19:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 23:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 18:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 19:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 20:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 20:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 18:45 Monteon Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 18:45 La Lima Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 21:45 Ligui Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 21:45 Tripui Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 23:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 23:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 23:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 18:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 19:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 18:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:45 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 20:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 19:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 20:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:15 La Florida Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 19:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:45 Chola Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 20:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 20:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 19:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 20:30 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 21:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 21:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:30 San Blas Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 23:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 18:45 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 18:45 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 22:45 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 18:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 00:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 00:00 Cunano Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 00:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 18:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 21:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 20:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 18:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1