Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19
in Mexico
17 Nov 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (17 Nov 07:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 72 km/h 0.3 m 235 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 573 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico656 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 15 Nov 2019 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 16 Nov 2019 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 16 Nov 2019 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 16 Nov 2019 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 16 Nov 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 17 Nov 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 17 Nov 2019 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico3,897 
100-250 mmMexico139,026 
50-100 mmMexico40,805 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 243 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 206 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 267 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Nov 2019 18:00 252 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 16 Nov 2019 00:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 16 Nov 2019 06:00 312 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 16 Nov 2019 12:00 279 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 16 Nov 2019 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 17 Nov 2019 00:00 305 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 17 Nov 2019 06:00 422 140 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Loreto, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Nov 2019 07:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 Nov 2019 07:30 Loreto Mexico  0.3
17 Nov 2019 07:30 Ligui Mexico  0.3
17 Nov 2019 07:30 Tripui Mexico  0.3
17 Nov 2019 07:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 11:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:00 Mulege Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:45 Datilito Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:45 La Paz Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:45 San Jose Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 11:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:15 Rosario Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:15 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 11:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 11:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 11:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:30 Tambobiche Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 08:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
17 Nov 2019 07:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 09:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 09:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 11:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 11:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 11:30 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 11:30 Cunano Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 11:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 08:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 08:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 08:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 08:15 Monteon Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 07:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 07:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 08:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 08:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 12:00 Quinones Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 07:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 07:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 10:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 10:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 07:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 07:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 07:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 06:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 06:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 06:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 06:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 06:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 07:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 07:45 Pizota Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 08:30 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 11:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 06:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 09:45 Novillero Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 09:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 06:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 06:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 06:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 09:45 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 07:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 09:15 La Lima Mexico  0.1