Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAWAN-19 in Somalia, Ethiopia from 03 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC to 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19

in Somalia, Ethiopia

04 Dec 2019 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Somalia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (04 Dec 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	204 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	79 km/h	0.3 m	778 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Somalia	2,389

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Somalia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Somalia	1,174
100-250 mm	Yemen, Somalia	166,405	+
	Yemen	36,448
	Somalia	129,957
50-100 mm	Yemen, Somalia	352,877	+
	Yemen	18,130
	Somalia	334,747

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	476	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	508	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	489	170 thousand				-	-	-	Yemen, Somalia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Harag Jid, Somalia. This height is estimated for 04 Dec 2019 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Dec 2019 02:00	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 01:15	Tadjoura	Djibouti	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 02:15	Loyado	Djibouti	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 02:15	Takhushih	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 02:15	Saylac	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	Djibouti	Djibouti	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 00:15	Baarbacadle	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 00:15	Eyl	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 00:15	Daga Laha Uein	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 08:15	'Ag	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	Obock	Djibouti	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 02:00	Fagal	Djibouti	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 02:00	Khor Angar	Djibouti	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 09:30	Eddi Gellei	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 09:30	Bola Cohuan	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	Murad	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	Al Hajaf	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:30	Bargaal	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:30	Aiesloho	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 02:00	Al Bahiyah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:00	Boho	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:00	Wareegsimo	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:00	Bereeda	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:30	Ascira	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:45	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:45	Hurdiyo	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:30	Mach	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Kamaran	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Sayfaf	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Al Jazirah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Qurayyah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Al Khawbah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Ibn Abbas	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:00	Ceelbacduur	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:00	Ceel Dhahanaan	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 12:00	Midi	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 12:00	Al Madasikah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 12:00	Al Kharamilah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 03:00	Gaalacoodday	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 02:00	Mayyun	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:00	Hen Daier	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:30	Hadeytacawl	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:30	Sabawanaag	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:30	Biyafoge	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:30	Sheikh Ali Idris	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 09:15	Bandarbeyla	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:45	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	Qa'wa	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:30	Madinat ash Shab	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	'Imran	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:00	Culli	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 12:00	Beylu	Eritrea	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 05:00	Tooxin	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	Ghadir	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	Maallah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 09:30	Denouda Digdiglei	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:30	Ari Adeso	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:30	Berbera	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	Bullaxaar	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 01:45	Geeri	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:00	Hobyo	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:00	Xaafuun	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:30	Sair	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:30	Haima	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:30	Fugwa	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:30	Sajid	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:30	Humr	Saudi Arabia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.