Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAWAN-19 in Somalia, Ethiopia from 03 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC to 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19

in Somalia, Ethiopia

04 Dec 2019 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (04 Dec 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	58 km/h	0.2 m	262 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	79 km/h	0.3 m	778 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Somalia	176
100-250 mm	Yemen, Somalia	240,115	+
	Yemen	29,803
	Somalia	210,312
50-100 mm	Yemen, Somalia	301,717	+
	Yemen	20,642
	Somalia	281,075

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	476	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	508	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 12:00	426	240 thousand				-	-	-	Yemen, Somalia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Al Qahmah, Saudi Arabia. This height is estimated for 04 Dec 2019 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Dec 2019 21:00	Al Qahmah	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 21:00	Musaykah	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Baarbacadle	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Eyl	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Daga Laha Uein	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 14:30	Hurdiyo	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 14:30	Xaafuun	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 16:30	Midi	Yemen	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 16:30	Al Kharamilah	Yemen	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 16:30	Al Madasikah	Yemen	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 19:15	Khatib	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 19:15	Haima	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 19:15	Fugwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 19:15	Bu Tawq	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 19:15	Sajid	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 19:15	Humr	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 19:15	Farasan	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Ceel Dhahanaan	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 13:45	Ascira	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 21:00	Hajambar	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 21:00	'Arid	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 18:30	Lakabi	Oman	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 18:30	Qaysad	Oman	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Ceelbacduur	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 21:00	Kamaran	Yemen	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 21:00	Sayfaf	Yemen	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 21:00	Al Jazirah	Yemen	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 21:00	Qurayyah	Yemen	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 21:00	Al Khawbah	Yemen	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 21:00	Ibn Abbas	Yemen	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 23:30	Sair	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Gaalacoodday	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 14:45	Darimoh	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 18:30	Jizan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 18:30	Al Karbus	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 18:30	Al Madaya	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 18:45	Qawz al Ja'afirah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 18:45	Mansiyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 14:00	Bola Cohuan	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:00	Lakba	Oman	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:00	Sawqirah	Oman	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Culli	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Eddi Gellei	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:45	Al Luyhayyah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Hen Daier	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 19:45	Cal Marthal	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 19:45	Dauli	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:15	Bandarbeyla	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Al Ghulayfiqah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Buyut al Muhamirah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:00	Bargaal	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 19:45	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:45	Al Fazah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Hobyo	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:00	Denouda Digdiglei	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 19:30	Beylu	Eritrea	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:00	Garahadde	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:15	Aiesloho	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:15	Mach	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:45	Boho	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:45	Wareegsimo	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:45	Bereeda	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:30	Al Butays	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:15	Al Khawkhah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:15	Maushij	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Al Hudaydah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 19:45	Sala Gon	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:15	Jirdan	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 21:45	Al 'Urj	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:00	Jabanah	Yemen	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:00	Karmu	Eritrea	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:45	Idi	Eritrea	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:45	Halaba	Eritrea	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.