Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAWAN-19 in Somalia, Ethiopia from 03 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC to 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19

in Somalia, Ethiopia

05 Dec 2019 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (06 Dec 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	61 km/h	0.2 m	172 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	79 km/h	0.3 m	778 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	05 Dec 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Somalia	4,682
100-250 mm	Somalia, Ethiopia	233,319	+
	Somalia	229,532
	Ethiopia	3,787
50-100 mm	Yemen, Oman, Somalia, Ethiopia	781,085	+
	Yemen	31,546
	Oman	16
	Somalia	695,808
	Ethiopia	53,715

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	476	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	508	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 12:00	262	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	05 Dec 2019 00:00	427	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	05 Dec 2019 12:00	391	240 thousand				-	-	-	Yemen, Oman, Somalia, Ethiopia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Bargaal, Somalia. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2019 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Dec 2019 03:15	Bargaal	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Baarbacadle	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Eyl	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Daga Laha Uein	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Ceelbacduur	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Ceel Dhahanaan	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 04:00	Bola Cohuan	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Ascira	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 16:00	Eddi Gellei	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 20:15	Darimoh	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 10:00	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Hurdiyo	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Xaafuun	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:15	'Ag	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 05:00	Bandarbeyla	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	Sala Gon	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:15	Midi	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:15	Al Kharamilah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	Aiesloho	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:15	Al Madasikah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 20:45	Dauli	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 20:45	Cal Marthal	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Cadayo	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 17:30	Mach	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 04:15	Gaalacoodday	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 18:15	Denouda Digdiglei	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 17:45	Hen Daier	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:45	Hobyo	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:45	Garahadde	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Culli	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Khatib	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Haima	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Fugwa	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Bu Tawq	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Sajid	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Humr	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Farasan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Al Qahmah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Musaykah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Tooxin	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Tadjoura	Djibouti	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Kamaran	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Sayfaf	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Al Jazirah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Qurayyah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Al Khawbah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Ibn Abbas	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:00	Sair	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Qishn	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Butays	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Khawkhah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Maushij	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Takhushih	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Saylac	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:15	Botiala	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Jirdan	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Hadeytacawl	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Sabawanaag	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Biyafoge	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Sheikh Ali Idris	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Buyut al Muhamirah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Fazah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:00	Beylu	Eritrea	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Alela	Eritrea	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Aseb	Eritrea	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Hajambar	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	'Arid	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Bandar Jedid	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Qawz al Ja'afirah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Mansiyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Jizan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:45	Anteral	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:45	Tabut	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:45	Hayrut	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Geeri	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Ari Adeso	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 04:45	Al Luyhayyah	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 17:00	Bereeda	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Djibouti	Djibouti	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Loyado	Djibouti	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Murad	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Al Hajaf	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:00	Al Karbus	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Kraytar	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Bullaxaar	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Yakhtul	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:15	Al Madaya	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Ghulayfiqah	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Al Mansuri	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Al Bahiyah	Yemen	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.