Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAWAN-19 in Somalia, Ethiopia from 03 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC to 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19

in Somalia, Ethiopia

06 Dec 2019 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Yemen, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia
Exposed population	80 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (06 Dec 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	58 km/h	0.2 m	213 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	79 km/h	0.3 m	778 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

Up to 9 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 5	Yemen, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia	62,435	+
	Yemen	35,385
	Eritrea	22
	Ethiopia	15,494
	Djibouti	03
	Somalia	11,531
CAT. 4	Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia	5,067	+
	Yemen	4,384
	Ethiopia	234
	Somalia	449
CAT. 3	Yemen, Ethiopia, Somalia	3,510	+
	Yemen	2,504
	Ethiopia	290
	Somalia	716
CAT. 2	Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia	1,323	+
	Yemen	686
	Ethiopia	182
	Somalia	455
CAT. 1	Yemen, Eritrea, Somalia, Ethiopia	4,023	+
	Yemen	2,496
	Eritrea	01
	Ethiopia	481
	Somalia	1,045
Tropical Storm	Yemen, Djibouti, Somalia, Ethiopia	8,630	+
	Yemen	5,311
	Ethiopia	541
	Djibouti	09
	Somalia	2,769

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	05 Dec 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	05 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 00:00	-	80 thousand							Yemen, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Somalia	1,231
100-250 mm	Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia	188,453	+
	Yemen	20,655
	Somalia	143,566
	Ethiopia	24,232
50-100 mm	Oman, Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia	1,038,405	+
	Oman	37
	Yemen	150,921
	Somalia	550,576
	Ethiopia	336,871

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	476	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	508	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 12:00	262	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	05 Dec 2019 00:00	427	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	05 Dec 2019 12:00	172	-		-	-	-	-	-	Somalia
8	06 Dec 2019 00:00	275	190 thousand				-	-	-	Oman, Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Baarbacadle, Somalia. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2019 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Dec 2019 21:00	Baarbacadle	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 21:00	Eyl	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 21:00	Daga Laha Uein	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Darimoh	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 20:15	'Ag	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:15	Bola Cohuan	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Ascira	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:15	Bargaal	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 21:45	Ceelbacduur	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 21:45	Ceel Dhahanaan	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 04:15	Gaalacoodday	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 04:15	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 04:15	Hurdiyo	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Aiesloho	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Mach	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 05:00	Xaafuun	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 16:00	Eddi Gellei	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Dauli	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Midi	Yemen	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Kharamilah	Yemen	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 14:45	Cadayo	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Madasikah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 21:15	Hen Daier	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:30	Cal Marthal	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Culli	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Bandarbeyla	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Sala Gon	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:15	Denouda Digdiglei	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 04:00	Hobyo	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Al Qahmah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Musaykah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:00	Sair	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:00	Haima	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:00	Fugwa	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:00	Sajid	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:00	Humr	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:45	Khatib	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:45	Bu Tawq	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:45	Farasan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Tooxin	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:30	Garahadde	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Boho	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Wareegsimo	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Bereeda	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Kamaran	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Sayfaf	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Al Jazirah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Qurayyah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Al Khawbah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Ibn Abbas	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:00	Beylu	Eritrea	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	Hajambar	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	'Arid	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Butays	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Khawkhah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Maushij	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Jirdan	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:30	Saylac	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:00	Takhushih	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Buyut al Muhamirah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Fazah	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:30	Boosaaso	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:30	Marero	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:30	Bacaad	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Qawz al Ja'afirah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Mansiyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Jizan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:15	Yakhtul	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 04:45	Al Luyhayyah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:15	Al Madaya	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Sawqirah	Oman	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Lakabi	Oman	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Qaysad	Oman	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:15	Al Karbus	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Ghulayfiqah	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:45	Anteral	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:15	Loyado	Djibouti	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 06:45	Al 'Urj	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:45	Tadjoura	Djibouti	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:45	Sheikh Ali Idris	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:45	Bullaxaar	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:30	Al Mansuri	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:30	Kraytar	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 06:30	Jabanah	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Djibouti	Djibouti	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:15	Alela	Eritrea	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:15	Aseb	Eritrea	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Al Mukha	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:00	Laasqoray	Somalia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.