Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20
in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan
17 May 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AMPHAN-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries India
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (17 May 00:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 133 km/h 0.2 m 207 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 263 km/h 2.4 m 749 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndia549 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2020 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 May 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 16 May 2020 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 17 May 2020 00:00 205 -
- - - - - India
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Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

749 mm

Up to 420 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmBurma423,317 
50-100 mmIndia, Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand10,651,884
+
India31,649 
Burma10,569,564 
Bangladesh7,146 
Sri Lanka37,478 
Thailand6,047 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2020 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 16 May 2020 12:00 99 -
- - - - - India
Blue 3 16 May 2020 18:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 May 2020 00:00 711 420 thousand
- - - - India, Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Kakinada, India. This height is estimated for 17 May 2020 00:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 May 2020 00:30 Kakinada India  0.2
17 May 2020 01:30 Karuvaddukkeni Sri Lanka  0.2
17 May 2020 01:30 Pulmoddai Sri Lanka  0.2
17 May 2020 01:30 Analkaddimady Sri Lanka  0.2
17 May 2020 02:30 Purnankuppam India  0.2
17 May 2020 02:30 Pondicherry India  0.2
17 May 2020 02:30 Kalapettai India  0.2
17 May 2020 03:15 Kelambakkam India  0.1
17 May 2020 03:15 Saint Thomas Mount India  0.1
17 May 2020 03:15 Madhavaram India  0.1
17 May 2020 03:15 Chennai India  0.1
17 May 2020 01:15 Foul Point Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 01:00 Bandamurlanka India  0.1
17 May 2020 01:45 Karaikal India  0.1
17 May 2020 01:45 Accarapatam India  0.1
17 May 2020 01:45 Velangann India  0.1
17 May 2020 01:45 Nagappattinam India  0.1
17 May 2020 00:45 Porto Novo India  0.1
17 May 2020 02:45 Srikurman India  0.1
17 May 2020 02:45 Kalingapatnam India  0.1
17 May 2020 00:45 Tirumullaivasal India  0.1
17 May 2020 00:45 Kaveripattanam India  0.1
17 May 2020 03:00 Vatturupallepalem India  0.1
17 May 2020 03:00 Govundlapalem India  0.1
17 May 2020 02:45 Aliavalai Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 02:45 Chundikkulam Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 00:00 Gangra India  0.1
17 May 2020 00:00 Kakdwip India  0.1
17 May 2020 00:00 Namkhana India  0.1
17 May 2020 00:00 Belpukur India  0.1