Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20
in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan
17 May 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AMPHAN-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries India, Bangladesh
Exposed population 2.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (17 May 14:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 115 km/h 0.3 m 117 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 263 km/h 2.4 m 749 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

263 km/h

Up to 67.8 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India2,320,579
+
India1,799,601 
Bangladesh520,978 
Tropical StormIndia, Bangladesh67,823,863
+
India47,563,614 
Bangladesh20,260,249 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2020 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 May 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 16 May 2020 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 17 May 2020 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 May 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 17 May 2020 12:00 202 2.3 million
- - - - India, Bangladesh
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia258,898 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Burma30,711,984
+
Burma653,317 
Bangladesh24,773 
India30,033,894 
50-100 mmChina, Burma, Bangladesh, India44,387,606
+
China525 
Burma15,030,123 
Bangladesh17,941,482 
India11,415,476 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2020 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 16 May 2020 12:00 99 -
- - - - - India
Blue 3 16 May 2020 18:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 May 2020 00:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 May 2020 06:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 17 May 2020 12:00 577 31 million
- - - China, Burma, Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Shangyaung, Myanmar. This height is estimated for 17 May 2020 14:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 May 2020 14:15 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 14:15 Mahameik Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 14:15 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 16:30 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 16:30 Alanbya Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 16:30 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 16:30 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 16:30 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 16:30 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 16:30 Kawbein Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 16:45 Damathat Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 15:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 15:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 15:00 Budin Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 15:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 15:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.3
17 May 2020 15:15 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 16:30 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 16:30 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 15:15 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 15:15 Khindan Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 15:15 Darein Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 15:15 Paung Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Gangra India  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Kakdwip India  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Namkhana India  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Belpukur India  0.2
17 May 2020 16:15 Munaing Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 16:15 Tagukana Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 16:15 Kawpamagon Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 16:00 Hngetkyidaung Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 16:00 Thegondan Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 16:00 Thaunggon Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 16:00 Mibya Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 16:00 Kala-ywa Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Dublat India  0.2
17 May 2020 16:15 Kwanhla Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 12:15 Karuvaddukkeni Sri Lanka  0.2
17 May 2020 12:15 Pulmoddai Sri Lanka  0.2
17 May 2020 12:15 Analkaddimady Sri Lanka  0.2
17 May 2020 17:45 Ase-ywa Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Kavutarimunai Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Pooneryn Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Ampan Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 17:00 Kyaikkami Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 12:30 Kattumavadi India  0.1
17 May 2020 12:30 Atirampattinam India  0.1
17 May 2020 14:30 Kakinada India  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Jaffna Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 13:15 Manamelkudi India  0.1
17 May 2020 13:00 Ammapatam India  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Maitbhanga Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Dhalapara Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Kamla Char Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Barabkunda Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Bansbaria Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Kumira Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Sitalpur Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Pyapon Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Apaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Ase Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 13:45 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 15:15 Kayindaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 15:15 Wagaru Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 15:15 Wegalaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 15:15 Karokpi Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 15:30 Purnankuppam India  0.1
17 May 2020 15:30 Pondicherry India  0.1
17 May 2020 15:30 Kalapettai India  0.1
17 May 2020 16:30 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:30 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:30 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:30 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:30 Anowara Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:30 Noapara Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 17:30 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Nawaladi Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 14:00 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 13:15 Kottaippattanam India  0.1
17 May 2020 15:15 Anin Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 14:45 Kodigeri India  0.1
17 May 2020 14:45 Vedaranyam India  0.1
17 May 2020 14:45 Vedaranniyam India  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Kalipur Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Jnanpara Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Dhalua Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Mahipur Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Chandkhali Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Burir Char Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Kachupatra Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Arpangasia Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:45 Kalapara Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 13:30 Alandaing Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 13:30 Hseikma Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 16:30 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 16:00 Bijavbati India  0.1