Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
01 Jul 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (01 Jul 13:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.8 m 101 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 1.0 m 553 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 970 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormDominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados974,254
+
Dominica28,558 
Martinique367,019 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines109,461 
Barbados284,214 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 148 -
- - - - - Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmDominican Republic, Belize, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Colombia, Panama, Guyana9,122,598
+
Dominican Republic4,289,490 
Belize17,645 
Saint Lucia34,264 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines99,797 
Barbados284,214 
Grenada6,956 
Venezuela1,428,322 
Trinidad and Tobago1,332,001 
Nicaragua41,405 
Costa Rica385,265 
Colombia447,544 
Panama747,170 
Guyana8,517 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 150 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 166 -
- - - - - Honduras, Venezuela
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 178 -
- - - - - Dominican Republic, Belize, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Colombia, Panama, Guyana




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC