Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
06 Jul 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Venezuela
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (06 Jul 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.6 m 169 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 1.0 m 553 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 2 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Venezuela2,007,195
+
United States1,983,749 
Venezuela23,446 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
GREEN 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
GREEN 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 76 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 05 Jul 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 05 Jul 2021 18:00 79 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 22 06 Jul 2021 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 23 06 Jul 2021 06:00 90 -
- - - - - United States, Venezuela
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Venezuela335,885
+
United States324,269 
Venezuela11,615 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Panama, Colombia, Guyana6,580,782
+
United States5,659,687 
Cuba103,543 
El Salvador21 
Nicaragua138,528 
Costa Rica4,451 
Trinidad and Tobago21,721 
Venezuela77,873 
Panama27,191 
Colombia538,222 
Guyana9,542 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 150 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 166 -
- - - - - Honduras, Venezuela
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 57 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 74 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 71 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 52 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 89 -
- - - - - Haiti
Blue 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 78 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 66 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 117 Few people
- - - - Cuba, Panama
Blue 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 98 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 77 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 05 Jul 2021 12:00 142 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 21 05 Jul 2021 18:00 148 70 thousand
- - - - Cuba
Blue 22 06 Jul 2021 00:00 80 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 23 06 Jul 2021 06:00 216 340 thousand
- - - - United States, Cuba, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Panama, Colombia, Guyana




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC