Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HOWARD-22
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HOWARD-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (08 Aug 08:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 68 km/h 0.5 m 168 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 0.6 m 427 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 200 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico195,041
+
United States194,314 
Mexico727 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Aug 2022 12:00 133 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Guatemala140,933
+
Mexico115,215 
Guatemala25,717 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala3,095,227
+
United States13,205 
Mexico1,751,128 
Guatemala1,330,893 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Aug 2022 12:00 333 140 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Texas, Beach City, United States. This height is estimated for 09/08/2022 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09/08/2022 08:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.2
09/08/2022 07:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.2
09/08/2022 07:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.2
09/08/2022 02:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
06/08/2022 21:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 07:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.2
09/08/2022 04:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
07/08/2022 11:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
08/08/2022 22:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 02:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.2
09/08/2022 04:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
09/08/2022 04:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.2
09/08/2022 08:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
09/08/2022 10:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1
09/08/2022 11:00 Veracruz, Veracruz Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 11:00 Veracruz, Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
08/08/2022 23:00 Tamaulipas, El Porvenir Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 08:00 Veracruz, Tecolutla Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 08:00 Veracruz, Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 10:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 08:00 Veracruz, La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
08/08/2022 23:00 Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 09:00 Veracruz, El Laurel Mexico  0.1
07/08/2022 02:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
06/08/2022 19:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
06/08/2022 18:00 Baja California Sur, Isla Cedros Cedros Mexico  0.1
06/08/2022 12:00 California, McNears Beach United States  0.0
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Tiburon United States  0.0
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Belvedere United States  0.0
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Angel Island Fort McDowell United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, North Beach United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Brisbane United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Bayview District United States