Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HOWARD-22
in Mexico
07 Aug 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HOWARD-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (07 Aug 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 65 km/h 0.3 m 221 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 0.6 m 427 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States83 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Aug 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Aug 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Aug 2022 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Aug 2022 06:00 72 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 5 07 Aug 2022 12:00 112 -
- - - - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico28,526 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico3,304,852
+
United States378,832 
Mexico2,926,020 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Aug 2022 12:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Aug 2022 18:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Aug 2022 00:00 134 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 07 Aug 2022 06:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Aug 2022 12:00 292 30 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Texas, Beach City, United States. This height is estimated for 09/08/2022 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09/08/2022 07:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.3
09/08/2022 08:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.2
09/08/2022 08:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
09/08/2022 07:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
08/08/2022 23:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 02:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.2
09/08/2022 02:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.2
09/08/2022 05:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
09/08/2022 04:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
09/08/2022 02:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.2
09/08/2022 02:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.2
09/08/2022 04:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.2
09/08/2022 07:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.2
09/08/2022 09:00 Tamaulipas, El Porvenir Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 10:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
09/08/2022 10:00 Veracruz, Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 06:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquital Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 10:00 Veracruz, Veracruz Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 06:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 11:00 Veracruz, La Guadalupe Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 11:00 Veracruz, Monte Gordo Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 05:00 Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 11:00 Veracruz, Tecolutla Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 11:00 Veracruz, El Laurel Mexico  0.2
09/08/2022 03:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.2
07/08/2022 22:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 08:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 01:00 Sonora, Atanacio Mexico  0.1
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Tiburon United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, McNears Beach United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Belvedere United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Angel Island Fort McDowell United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, North Beach United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Brisbane United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Bayview District United States