Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HOWARD-22
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HOWARD-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (09 Aug 17:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 79 km/h 0.4 m 118 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 0.6 m 427 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 890 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Aug 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States888,087 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Aug 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Aug 2022 18:00 144 -
- - - - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Aug 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico5,926 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala6,611,091
+
United States12,065 
Mexico5,954,336 
Guatemala644,689 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Aug 2022 12:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Aug 2022 18:00 309 6 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Texas, Beach City, United States. This height is estimated for 09/08/2022 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Aug 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09/08/2022 02:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.2
09/08/2022 01:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.2
09/08/2022 01:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.2
09/08/2022 01:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.2
08/08/2022 20:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
08/08/2022 19:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
08/08/2022 22:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
08/08/2022 20:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
08/08/2022 22:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.2
08/08/2022 22:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.2
09/08/2022 11:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.2
08/08/2022 22:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.2
08/08/2022 22:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.2
08/08/2022 20:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.2
09/08/2022 01:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
08/08/2022 22:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
08/08/2022 21:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.2
09/08/2022 10:00 Tamaulipas, El Porvenir Mexico  0.2
07/08/2022 03:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 10:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 10:00 Veracruz, Veracruz Mexico  0.1
08/08/2022 21:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1
09/08/2022 03:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 10:00 Veracruz, Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 10:00 Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 11:00 Veracruz, La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 10:00 Veracruz, Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 11:00 Veracruz, Tecolutla Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 11:00 Veracruz, El Laurel Mexico  0.1
08/08/2022 15:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
09/08/2022 01:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Tiburon United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, McNears Beach United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Belvedere United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Angel Island Fort McDowell United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, North Beach United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Brisbane United States
06/08/2022 12:00 California, Bayview District United States