Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HOWARD-22
in Mexico
11 Aug 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HOWARD-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (11 Aug 15:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 50 km/h 0.4 m 112 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 0.6 m 427 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Aug 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Aug 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Aug 2022 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Aug 2022 06:00 72 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 5 07 Aug 2022 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Aug 2022 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Aug 2022 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Aug 2022 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Aug 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Aug 2022 18:00 101 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 11 09 Aug 2022 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Aug 2022 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Aug 2022 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Aug 2022 18:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 10 Aug 2022 00:00 94 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 16 10 Aug 2022 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 10 Aug 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 10 Aug 2022 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 11 Aug 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 11 Aug 2022 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 11 Aug 2022 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico12,614
+
United States17 
Mexico12,596 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala6,335,133
+
United States45,015 
Mexico4,097,311 
Guatemala2,192,806 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Aug 2022 12:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Aug 2022 18:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Aug 2022 00:00 134 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 07 Aug 2022 06:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Aug 2022 12:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 07 Aug 2022 18:00 153 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 08 Aug 2022 00:00 85 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 8 08 Aug 2022 06:00 106 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 08 Aug 2022 12:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Aug 2022 18:00 130 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 11 09 Aug 2022 00:00 103 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 12 09 Aug 2022 06:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 09 Aug 2022 12:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 09 Aug 2022 18:00 123 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 15 10 Aug 2022 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 10 Aug 2022 06:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 10 Aug 2022 12:00 116 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 10 Aug 2022 18:00 74 -
- - - - - United States, Guatemala
Blue 19 11 Aug 2022 00:00 78 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 20 11 Aug 2022 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 21 11 Aug 2022 12:00 217 10 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC