Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for HOWARD-22 in Mexico from 06 Aug 2022 15:00 UTC to 11 Aug 2022 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HOWARD-22

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HOWARD-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	90 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (08 Aug 14:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	90 km/h	0.2 m	208 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.6 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	United States	03

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	06 Aug 2022 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	06 Aug 2022 18:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	07 Aug 2022 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	07 Aug 2022 06:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	07 Aug 2022 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	07 Aug 2022 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	08 Aug 2022 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	08 Aug 2022 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	08 Aug 2022 12:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	29,625
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico, Guatemala	3,812,374	+
	United States	887,020
	Mexico	2,386,556
	Guatemala	538,797

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	06 Aug 2022 12:00	168	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	06 Aug 2022 18:00	118	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	07 Aug 2022 00:00	134	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
4	07 Aug 2022 06:00	141	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Aug 2022 12:00	221	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	07 Aug 2022 18:00	153	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	08 Aug 2022 00:00	85	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
8	08 Aug 2022 06:00	106	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
9	08 Aug 2022 12:00	425	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Guatemala

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Texas, North Beach, United States. This height is estimated for 09/08/2022 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09/08/2022 02:00	Texas, North Beach	United States	0.3
	09/08/2022 07:00	Texas, El Campo Club Community	United States	0.3
	09/08/2022 10:00	Texas, Beach City	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 02:00	Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 10:00	Texas, Cedar Point	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 11:00	Texas, Seabrook	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 06:00	Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 07:00	Texas, Crystal Beach	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 07:00	Texas, Patton	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 07:00	Texas, Caplen	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 07:00	Texas, Gilchrist	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 03:00	Tamaulipas, El Mezquite	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 10:00	Texas, Smith Point	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 10:00	Louisiana, Cameron	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 06:00	Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 03:00	Texas, Port Ingleside	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 06:00	Texas, Quintana	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 10:00	Louisiana, Cypremort Point	United States	0.2
	09/08/2022 02:00	Tamaulipas, El Porvenir	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 02:00	Tamaulipas, El Mezquital	Mexico	0.2
	08/08/2022 21:00	Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 01:00	Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 11:00	Veracruz, Veracruz	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 10:00	Veracruz, Buen Pais	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 11:00	Veracruz, Anton Lizardo	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 11:00	Veracruz, La Guadalupe	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 11:00	Veracruz, Tecolutla	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 11:00	Veracruz, Monte Gordo	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 11:00	Veracruz, El Laurel	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 07:00	Sonora, La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	09/08/2022 07:00	Baja California, Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	09/08/2022 08:00	Sonora, Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	09/08/2022 01:00	Sinaloa, Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	09/08/2022 08:00	Sonora, San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	06/08/2022 12:00	California, Tiburon	United States
	06/08/2022 12:00	California, McNears Beach	United States
	06/08/2022 12:00	California, Belvedere	United States
	06/08/2022 12:00	California, Angel Island Fort McDowell	United States
	06/08/2022 12:00	California, North Beach	United States
	06/08/2022 12:00	California, Brisbane	United States
	06/08/2022 12:00	California, Bayview District	United States

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.