Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

15 May 2021 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	India
Exposed population	420 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	119 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (15 May 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	119 km/h	0.4 m	546 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	223 km/h	2.5 m	1057 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

223 km/h

Up to 420 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 May 2021 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	India	30,491
CAT. 1	India	392,337
Tropical Storm	India	20,958,120

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	234	420 thousand				-	-	-	India

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 May 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	19,870
100-250 mm	India	8,784,567
50-100 mm	India	14,322,408

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	372	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	387	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	914	8.8 million				-	-	-	India

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Mavalli, India. This height is estimated for 15 May 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 May 2021 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 May 2021 12:00	Mavalli	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Shirali	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Bhatkal	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Bainduru	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Chittadi	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kundapura	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 11:15	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.4
	15 May 2021 11:15	Aliavalai	Sri Lanka	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Honavar	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Manki	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 11:00	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.4
	15 May 2021 11:00	Nawaladi	Sri Lanka	0.4
	15 May 2021 10:00	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Udipi	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 07:30	Mulki	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kumta	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 06:30	Belekeri	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 06:30	Ankola	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 06:30	Gokarn	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 06:30	Karwar	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 09:45	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.3
	15 May 2021 07:15	Mangaluru	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 07:00	Sadashivgarh	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 07:30	Manjeshwaram	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 07:30	Kumbla	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 06:00	Majali	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 06:15	Advota	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 06:15	Chaudi	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:15	Terekhol	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:15	Chopdem	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:15	Anjuna	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kayts	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:00	Vengurla	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Kasaragod	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kiranchi	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 11:15	Talaimannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 11:15	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 11:15	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 11:15	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Madayipara	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Madayi	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Kannapuram	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Chirakkal	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Valapattanam	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Azhikkal	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Cannanore	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:15	Bekal	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:30	Nileshwar	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:15	Panaji	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:15	Malvan	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 06:15	Marmagao	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 06:15	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 06:15	Agacaim	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 06:15	Madgaon	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 10:45	Silavatturai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 08:00	Trikkaripur	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Chervattur	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 11:45	Kurichchikadu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Edakkad	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Dharmadam	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:45	Tellicherry	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 06:15	Vellankulam	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:30	Mahe	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:15	Badagara	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:15	Payyoli	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 07:15	Achra	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 08:30	Guhagar	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 08:30	Anjanwel	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 08:45	Boria	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:45	Jaigarh	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:45	Srivardhan	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:45	Bankot	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:45	Kelshi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Talakkolattur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kozhikode	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Beypore	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Chaliyam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Tirurangadi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:00	Mirya	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:00	Ratnagiri	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:00	Purnagad	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Tanur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:00	Purangad	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2021 11:45	Tanniyurnagaram	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:15	Ormara Raik	Pakistan	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:15	Ormara	Pakistan	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Quilandi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 10:45	Anaippapan	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Chaughat	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Talikkulam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Pappinivatti	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 06:45	Vijayadurg	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 06:45	Devgarh	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 06:45	Pural	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 07:15	Cochin	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 07:15	Mattancheri	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 07:15	Turavur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:15	Adiura	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Ponnani	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Veliyangod	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 09:45	New Kandla	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 09:45	Navlakhi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 11:00	Chudeswar	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 11:00	Salaya	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:45	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 09:30	Jodiya	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 06:15	Delft Centre	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2021 10:30	Jambura	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 11:00	Jhankhar	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 08:45	Murud	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.