Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

16 May 2021 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	India, Pakistan
Exposed population	1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	212 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.0 m (16 May 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	212 km/h	1.0 m	335 mm	2.5
HWRF Overall	223 km/h	2.5 m	1057 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

223 km/h

Up to 1.9 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	India	36,102
CAT. 1	India	1,837,849
Tropical Storm	India, Pakistan	79,023,261	+
	India	78,742,341
	Pakistan	280,920

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	176	50 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	223	1.9 million				-	-	-	India, Pakistan

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	India	48,503
250-500 mm	India	2,309,622
100-250 mm	India, Pakistan	62,450,447	+
	India	62,446,979
	Pakistan	3,467
50-100 mm	India, Pakistan	42,763,853	+
	India	42,698,859
	Pakistan	64,994

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	372	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	387	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	546	Few people			-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	270	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	241	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	288	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	238	6 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	641	64.8 million					-	-	India, Pakistan

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.0m in Purangad, India. This height is estimated for 16 May 2021 13:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2021 13:30	Purangad	India	1.0
	16 May 2021 13:30	Purnagad	India	1.0
	16 May 2021 13:30	Adiura	India	1.0
	16 May 2021 13:30	Ratnagiri	India	1.0
	16 May 2021 13:30	Vijayadurg	India	1.0
	16 May 2021 13:30	Mirya	India	1.0
	16 May 2021 13:45	Devgarh	India	1.0
	16 May 2021 13:45	Pural	India	1.0
	16 May 2021 14:00	Jaigarh	India	0.9
	16 May 2021 13:45	Achra	India	0.8
	16 May 2021 15:15	Guhagar	India	0.8
	16 May 2021 15:15	Anjanwel	India	0.8
	16 May 2021 14:00	Malvan	India	0.8
	16 May 2021 15:00	Boria	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 16:15	Bankot	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 16:15	Kelshi	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 16:00	Srivardhan	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 16:00	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 14:15	Vengurla	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 14:15	Terekhol	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 16:30	Murud	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 16:30	Revadanda	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 13:30	Chopdem	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 13:30	Anjuna	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 16:30	Alibag	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 13:30	Panaji	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 14:15	Marmagao	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 14:15	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 12:15	Madgaon	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:15	Advota	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:15	Chaudi	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:15	Karwar	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:15	Belekeri	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:15	Ankola	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:15	Gokarn	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 13:00	Agacaim	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 13:45	Kundapura	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 17:00	Mandve	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 13:30	Shirali	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 13:30	Bhatkal	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 13:30	Bainduru	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 13:30	Chittadi	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:15	Majali	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 13:00	Mavalli	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 17:15	Uran	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:00	Sadashivgarh	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 17:00	Asumumbay	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:45	Manki	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:45	Kumta	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 13:30	Udipi	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 16:15	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 16:15	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 16:15	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 16:15	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Aliavalai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:45	Honavar	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Nawaladi	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 17:30	Malad	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 17:30	Mumbai	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 17:30	Trombay	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 17:30	Dongri	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 13:30	Mulki	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 14:00	Mangaluru	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:00	Vasai	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:00	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:00	Navghar	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 13:30	Manjeshwaram	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 13:30	Kumbla	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:00	Nalasopara	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 14:00	Kayts	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:00	Vanak	Iran	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:00	Bayahi	Iran	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:30	Gurdim	Iran	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:30	Guraim	Iran	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:30	Dorri	Iran	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:30	Pozm Tiab	Iran	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:30	Machan	Iran	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:30	Konarak	Iran	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.