Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

15 May 2021 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Pakistan, India
Exposed population	1.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (15 May 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	158 km/h	0.7 m	241 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	223 km/h	2.5 m	1057 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

223 km/h

Up to 1.1 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	India	52,255
CAT. 1	India	1,049,513
Tropical Storm	Pakistan, India	44,080,010	+
	Pakistan	539,945
	India	43,540,064

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	209	1.1 million				-	-	-	Pakistan, India

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	1,537,212
100-250 mm	India	45,726,857
50-100 mm	India, Pakistan	37,120,411	+
	India	37,057,767
	Pakistan	62,644

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	372	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	387	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	546	Few people			-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	270	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	582	47.3 million				-	-	-	India, Pakistan

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Sadashivgarh, India. This height is estimated for 15 May 2021 19:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 May 2021 19:30	Sadashivgarh	India	0.7
	15 May 2021 19:30	Karwar	India	0.7
	15 May 2021 19:30	Belekeri	India	0.7
	15 May 2021 23:00	Marmagao	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 23:00	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 23:00	Panaji	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 23:00	Agacaim	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 23:00	Madgaon	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 19:45	Ankola	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 19:45	Gokarn	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 19:15	Advota	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 19:15	Chaudi	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 19:15	Majali	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 20:30	Kumta	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 20:30	Honavar	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 20:30	Manki	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 23:30	Chopdem	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 23:30	Anjuna	India	0.6
	15 May 2021 23:30	Terekhol	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 00:00	Vengurla	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 20:30	Mavalli	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 20:30	Shirali	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 20:30	Bhatkal	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 22:00	Bainduru	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 21:45	Chittadi	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 23:45	Malvan	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 20:45	Kundapura	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 20:00	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.3
	15 May 2021 20:00	Aliavalai	Sri Lanka	0.3
	15 May 2021 23:45	Achra	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 19:45	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.3
	15 May 2021 19:45	Nawaladi	Sri Lanka	0.3
	15 May 2021 22:00	Udipi	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 23:15	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.3
	15 May 2021 22:30	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.3
	15 May 2021 23:45	Devgarh	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 20:45	Mulki	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 23:30	Pural	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 23:30	Vijayadurg	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 19:15	Purangad	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 19:15	Purnagad	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 19:15	Adiura	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 22:00	Kayts	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 19:30	Ratnagiri	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:30	Mangaluru	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:30	Manjeshwaram	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 19:30	Jaigarh	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 19:30	Mirya	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 22:30	Kiranchi	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:30	Kumbla	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:45	Talaimannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:45	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:45	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:45	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 21:45	Kurichchikadu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 19:45	Boria	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 19:45	Guhagar	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:00	Kasaragod	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:00	Bekal	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:15	Silavatturai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:00	Nileshwar	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:00	Chervattur	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:00	Trikkaripur	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:00	Madayipara	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:00	Madayi	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:15	Kannapuram	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:15	Chirakkal	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:15	Valapattanam	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:15	Azhikkal	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:15	Cannanore	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:15	Edakkad	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:15	Dharmadam	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:15	Tellicherry	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 20:45	Payyoli	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:45	Quilandi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:45	Talakkolattur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:45	Kozhikode	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:00	Mahe	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:00	Badagara	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:15	Beypore	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:15	Chaliyam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:15	Tirurangadi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:15	Tanur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 22:15	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2021 23:15	Dongri	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 23:15	Malad	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 23:15	Vasai	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 23:15	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 23:15	Navghar	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 23:15	Trombay	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:15	Turavur	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:00	Vellankulam	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2021 19:45	Anjanwel	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:15	Mattancheri	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:15	Tanniyurnagaram	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:30	Pappinivatti	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:30	Cochin	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 22:30	Asumumbay	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 22:30	Alibag	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 22:30	Mandve	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 22:30	Uran	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 22:00	Revadanda	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 18:00	Kodigeri	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:15	Anaippapan	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:45	Chaughat	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:45	Talikkulam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:15	Mahuva	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:15	Kotada	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 18:00	Vedaranyam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 18:00	Vedaranniyam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:00	Ormara Raik	Pakistan	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:00	Ormara	Pakistan	0.1
	15 May 2021 21:15	Alleppey	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:45	Ponnani	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:45	Veliyangod	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 22:30	Murud	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 22:30	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 23:45	Mumbai	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 23:45	Taloje	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 23:45	Diva	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:15	Kadikkad	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:15	Manattala	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:15	Chavakkad	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 20:15	Guruvayur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 18:00	Atirampattinam	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.