Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

15 May 2021 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Pakistan, India
Exposed population	2.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	133 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (15 May 14:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	133 km/h	0.5 m	270 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	223 km/h	2.5 m	1057 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

223 km/h

Up to 2.8 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 3	India	242,426
CAT. 2	India	414,085
CAT. 1	India	2,125,478
Tropical Storm	Pakistan, India	32,447,894	+
	Pakistan	277,077
	India	32,170,816

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	227	2.8 million					-	-	Pakistan, India

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	1,976,246
100-250 mm	India	7,557,390
50-100 mm	India	15,071,360

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	372	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	387	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	546	Few people			-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	739	9.5 million				-	-	-	India

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Karwar, India. This height is estimated for 15 May 2021 14:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 May 2021 14:15	Karwar	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 14:15	Belekeri	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 14:15	Ankola	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 14:15	Gokarn	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 12:45	Shirali	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 12:45	Bhatkal	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 12:45	Bainduru	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 12:45	Chittadi	India	0.5
	15 May 2021 12:45	Mavalli	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:15	Honavar	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:15	Manki	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 18:00	Kumta	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:15	Kundapura	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 13:30	Sadashivgarh	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Aliavalai	Sri Lanka	0.4
	15 May 2021 13:45	Majali	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Nawaladi	Sri Lanka	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:30	Udipi	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 13:45	Advota	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 13:45	Chaudi	India	0.4
	15 May 2021 12:00	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.4
	15 May 2021 17:30	Marmagao	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 17:30	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 17:30	Panaji	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 17:30	Agacaim	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 17:30	Madgaon	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 12:15	Mulki	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 12:00	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.3
	15 May 2021 18:00	Chopdem	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 18:00	Anjuna	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 18:00	Terekhol	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 18:00	Vengurla	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 12:30	Mangaluru	India	0.3
	15 May 2021 12:45	Manjeshwaram	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 18:00	Malvan	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kayts	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:30	Kumbla	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kiranchi	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kasaragod	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:00	Bekal	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 18:00	Achra	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 13:15	Kurichchikadu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 18:00	Devgarh	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 13:00	Vellankulam	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:00	Nileshwar	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:15	Edakkad	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:15	Dharmadam	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:15	Tellicherry	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:15	Mahe	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:15	Badagara	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:15	Payyoli	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:15	Chervattur	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 15:45	Dongri	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 15:45	Malad	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 15:45	Vasai	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 15:45	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 15:45	Navghar	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 15:45	Trombay	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 16:15	Talaimannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 16:15	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 16:15	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 16:15	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:00	Trikkaripur	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 12:00	Madayipara	India	0.2
	15 May 2021 15:30	Pural	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:15	Cannanore	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 14:00	Boria	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 14:00	Guhagar	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 14:00	Jaigarh	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:15	Nalasopara	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:00	Mumbai	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:00	Asumumbay	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:00	Uran	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:15	Agashi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Talakkolattur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kozhikode	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Beypore	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Chaliyam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Tirurangadi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:30	Quilandi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Madayi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Kannapuram	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Chirakkal	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Valapattanam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Azhikkal	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:15	Manattala	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:15	Chavakkad	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:15	Guruvayur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:15	Chaughat	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:15	Talikkulam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 15:45	Silavatturai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Tanur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:00	Gurdim	Iran	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:00	Guraim	Iran	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:00	Dorri	Iran	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:00	Pozm Tiab	Iran	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:00	Machan	Iran	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:00	Konarak	Iran	0.1
	15 May 2021 13:45	Bankot	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 13:45	Kelshi	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 17:15	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2021 18:00	Vijayadurg	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 17:00	Kodigeri	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 17:00	Vedaranyam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 17:00	Vedaranniyam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:30	Shirgaon	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:30	Palghar	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:30	Mahim	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 14:00	Anjanwel	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Pappinivatti	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 13:15	Ormara Raik	Pakistan	0.1
	15 May 2021 13:15	Ormara	Pakistan	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Tanniyurnagaram	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:15	Mandve	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:30	Cochin	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 13:45	Mirya	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:15	Alibag	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:15	Kadikkad	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 13:45	Ratnagiri	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Ponnani	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:00	Veliyangod	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:30	Mattancheri	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 15:45	Al Kalban	Oman	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:15	Turavur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:30	Vanak	Iran	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Durgarajupatnam	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 17:00	Tarapur	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 17:00	Boisar	India	0.1
	15 May 2021 17:15	Atirampattinam	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.