Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

16 May 2021 18 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	India, Pakistan
Exposed population	950 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	223 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.9 m (16 May 20:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	223 km/h	0.9 m	346 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	223 km/h	2.5 m	1057 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

223 km/h

Up to 950 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	India	945,835
Tropical Storm	India, Pakistan	81,268,131	+
	India	81,137,634
	Pakistan	130,497

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	176	50 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	212	250 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
11	16 May 2021 18:00	223	950 thousand			-	-	-	-	India, Pakistan

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	India	894
250-500 mm	India	5,751,369
100-250 mm	India, Pakistan	59,317,044	+
	India	59,315,143
	Pakistan	1,901
50-100 mm	India, Pakistan	49,371,242	+
	India	49,158,971
	Pakistan	212,270

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	372	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	387	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	546	Few people			-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	270	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	241	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	288	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	238	6 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	335	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
11	16 May 2021 18:00	556	65.1 million					-	-	India, Pakistan

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.9m in Boria, India. This height is estimated for 16 May 2021 20:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2021 20:15	Boria	India	0.9
	16 May 2021 20:15	Guhagar	India	0.9
	16 May 2021 20:15	Anjanwel	India	0.9
	16 May 2021 20:00	Bankot	India	0.9
	16 May 2021 20:00	Kelshi	India	0.9
	16 May 2021 19:45	Srivardhan	India	0.9
	16 May 2021 20:15	Jaigarh	India	0.9
	16 May 2021 20:45	Mirya	India	0.8
	16 May 2021 20:45	Ratnagiri	India	0.8
	16 May 2021 20:45	Purnagad	India	0.8
	16 May 2021 19:30	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.8
	16 May 2021 20:30	Purangad	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 20:30	Adiura	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 19:45	Murud	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 20:45	Vijayadurg	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 20:30	Pural	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 23:00	Revadanda	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 23:30	Alibag	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 20:30	Devgarh	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 23:15	Mandve	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 20:45	Achra	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 23:15	Uran	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 23:45	Malad	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 23:45	Mumbai	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 23:45	Asumumbay	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 23:45	Trombay	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 23:30	Dongri	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 23:30	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 21:00	Malvan	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 20:30	Vengurla	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 20:30	Terekhol	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 23:15	Vasai	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 23:30	Nalasopara	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 23:15	Navghar	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 00:00	Taloje	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Marmagao	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Panaji	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Agacaim	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Madgaon	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 19:15	Karwar	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 19:15	Belekeri	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 19:15	Ankola	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 19:15	Gokarn	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 23:30	Agashi	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 20:30	Chopdem	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 20:30	Anjuna	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:30	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:30	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:30	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:30	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:00	Diva	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 18:45	Advota	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 18:45	Chaudi	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 18:45	Majali	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:15	Sadashivgarh	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:30	Kumta	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:30	Honavar	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:30	Manki	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:45	Mavalli	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:45	Shirali	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 19:45	Bhatkal	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 18:15	Mulki	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:00	Bainduru	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 21:30	Kundapura	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:00	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:00	Aliavalai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:00	Chittadi	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:00	Udipi	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:00	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:00	Nawaladi	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:00	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 21:15	Mangaluru	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 18:15	Manjeshwaram	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 21:30	Kumbla	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 00:00	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.