Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

17 May 2021 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	India, Pakistan
Exposed population	1.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	220 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (17 May 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	220 km/h	0.8 m	286 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	223 km/h	2.5 m	1057 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

223 km/h

Up to 1.5 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2021 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	India	10
CAT. 1	India	1,495,192
Tropical Storm	India, Pakistan	87,821,539	+
	India	87,444,502
	Pakistan	377,036

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	176	50 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	212	250 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
11	16 May 2021 18:00	223	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
12	17 May 2021 00:00	220	1.5 million				-	-	-	India, Pakistan

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2021 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	India	1,679
250-500 mm	India	1,664,222
100-250 mm	India	61,739,114
50-100 mm	India, Pakistan	37,772,720	+
	India	37,752,054
	Pakistan	20,666

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	372	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	387	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	546	Few people			-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	270	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	241	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	288	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	238	6 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	335	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
11	16 May 2021 18:00	346	490 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
12	17 May 2021 00:00	591	63.4 million					-	-	India, Pakistan

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Murud, India. This height is estimated for 17 May 2021 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2021 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2021 03:00	Murud	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 03:00	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 03:00	Srivardhan	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 03:00	Bankot	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 03:00	Kelshi	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 03:00	Alibag	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 03:00	Revadanda	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 06:00	Malad	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 06:00	Mumbai	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 06:00	Asumumbay	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 06:00	Uran	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 06:00	Trombay	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 06:00	Diva	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 06:00	Taloje	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 02:45	Anjanwel	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 00:30	Jaigarh	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 00:30	Mirya	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 00:30	Ratnagiri	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 00:30	Purnagad	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 06:00	Dongri	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 06:00	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 02:00	Guhagar	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 03:15	Boria	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 03:15	Mandve	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 05:30	Vasai	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 05:30	Navghar	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 05:45	Nalasopara	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 00:30	Purangad	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 00:30	Adiura	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 05:45	Agashi	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 00:15	Vijayadurg	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 00:15	Devgarh	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 00:15	Pural	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 00:30	Achra	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 05:30	Shirgaon	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 05:30	Palghar	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 05:30	Mahim	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 00:30	Malvan	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 06:00	Boisar	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 03:30	Vengurla	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 03:30	Terekhol	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 00:30	Chopdem	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:30	Anjuna	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:30	Marmagao	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:30	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:30	Panaji	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 04:30	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 04:30	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 04:30	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 04:30	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 06:00	Tarapur	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:30	Madgaon	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:30	Agacaim	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:45	Kundapura	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:30	Udipi	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:30	Mulki	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:45	Chittadi	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:15	Advota	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:15	Chaudi	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:00	Karwar	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:00	Belekeri	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:00	Ankola	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:00	Gokarn	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:30	Majali	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:30	Sadashivgarh	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 05:45	Malyan	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 05:45	Sakhare	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 00:15	Mangaluru	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 00:00	Kumta	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 00:30	Manjeshwaram	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:30	Mavalli	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:30	Shirali	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:30	Bhatkal	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:30	Bainduru	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Cannanore	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Edakkad	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Dharmadam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Tellicherry	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Mahe	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Badagara	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:45	Gholvad	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Payyoli	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 06:00	Honavar	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 06:00	Manki	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 00:15	Kumbla	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:15	Gorser	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:15	Shil	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:15	Mangrol	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:45	Kozhikode	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:45	Beypore	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:45	Chaliyam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:45	Tirurangadi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:45	Tanur	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Quilandi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Talakkolattur	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:45	Gadechi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:45	Okha	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:45	Aramda	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:45	Rumra	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:45	Kalat	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 03:00	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2021 03:00	Aliavalai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:45	Bordi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:30	Sonmiani	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:30	Naka Kharari	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 05:30	Gadani	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 02:30	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2021 02:30	Nawaladi	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2021 00:15	Kasaragod	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 00:15	Bekal	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 03:45	Ormara Raik	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 03:45	Ormara	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Tanniyurnagaram	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 03:00	Thoothukkudi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 03:00	Melmandai	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 03:00	Vembar	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Chirakkal	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Valapattanam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Azhikkal	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 02:45	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2021 01:00	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.